Think Sleepy played the hostile well. Had to be aggressive. CR played it fairly conservatively, not neccesarily a bad play by any means. They need to keep that bank fight tied up until their top ~10 provinces can escape sleepys core... Its going to be interesting to see how the bottom goes but it still looks like sleepys only real shot is if they can decisivly win the bank fight in the next 24h.
Based on the goodzometric system of predictions CR was 4:1 to win I might lower that to 3:1 now, they still got it.