I think Avian thief is a bad idea. I think a good thief needs to turtle.
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May I ask why an A/T needs to turtle? I play A/M and run about 25 DPA and 5-6 raw WPA. Why does a thief need to turtle?
thieves desert when you get chained. since you have less offense than heavy attacker, you can't get your land back as easily. a/t are harder to shell out compared to heavy attacker because they can kidnap back, so if they have the same defense as heavy attacker they will get chained.
I believe avian was at its best with a losses penalty and no access to hospitals :) In a time when cleric didn't exist. So i do believe they can exist. Mind you back then you could raze in war so chaining was more rapid and ended in death sometimes.
Razing balanced out Avains back then. They could actually chain down then raze someone out of war. With the removal of raze every (non land whoring kd) war degrades into a fight at the bottom of which sustain is very important. I'd very much support your ideas if raze was included in war again (just keep science and make explore for any raze killed player free up to X% kd size), otherwise i think you make them WAY to weak by giving +losses.