TPA does not affect Thieves' success rate

[daigo]

You have to have watchtowers. Your TPA is irrelevant in determining thievery success against you. The watch towers play an important part.

0% WT means a thief will rob you blind.

lol?

Anyway, does anyone know the formula for comparing TPA and success rate based on the difference

[_greenie]

clampy might... but it's not very common knowledge

[daigo]

Oh, I just thought it was something everyone knew because the optimal number to send for each op I already know, but even though I might have a higher TPA than the target, I don't want to lose more Thieves than I can afford, therefore I wanted to compare the success rates between a number of any two different TPAs to see how many Thieves would be lost as well as the variable rate to make Thieving more effective (like knowing if going after a target is worth it or not)

[khedrei]

If you are an A/T with 5 TPA raw you certainly don't need WT. Is that what you are asking?

I have found that if you have double a tartets TPA and he has no WT or CS you usually get through 9 times out of 10. Maybe even more.

[vines]

Someone ask something like this in another thread. I gave the answer in that thread.
100-5tpa = 95 opponent 100-2tpa = 98; 98-95 = +2 or -2 this mean the province with 2tpa will fail twice as much as the the opponent with 5tpa. Take the 95 from the province with 5tpa and do 95-2 = 93. This mean the opponent with 5tpa has a 93% getting ops through given they are the same net size. 93/2 = 46.5. The 46.5 means the opponent with 2tpa has a 46.5% chance of getting through. Also these chances of success are further modified by the type of op you are doing. With the harder ops one needs a higher raw success rate as the arder ops will lower the raw success rates. These are raw success rates.

[khedrei]

^^

Is anyone else haveing a hard time understanding that??

[VT2]

You're too stupid for your own good, vines.

[Palem]

98-95 = +2 or -2

lulz. Vines' math is getting worse. First it was fractions, now it's simple subtraction.

[vines]

When I put +2 or -2. I mean positive or negative. That's how it works. You will find this method very reliable. The positive and negative symbols in front of the two just mean against or for.

[DHaran]

It's a troll, stop wasting your time, even I gave up on this.

[ordos]

Someone ask something like this in another thread. I gave the answer in that thread.
100-5tpa = 95 opponent 100-2tpa = 98; 98-95 = +2 or -2 this mean the province with 2tpa will fail twice as much as the the opponent with 5tpa. Take the 95 from the province with 5tpa and do 95-2 = 93. This mean the opponent with 5tpa has a 93% getting ops through given they are the same net size. 93/2 = 46.5. The 46.5 means the opponent with 2tpa has a 46.5% chance of getting through. Also these chances of success are further modified by the type of op you are doing. With the harder ops one needs a higher raw success rate as the arder ops will lower the raw success rates. These are raw success rates.

Put simply, I am drunk and don't understand a word here... I do an Engineering degree and ultimately - no matter how you put it, 98-95 = +3 and 95-98 = -3.

Can you break this into easy steps so people can look at your logic? At the moment it is a jumble, even for a sober person.

[Palem]

Ordos, I'm gonna do you a favor. Do not waste your time trying to understand how Vines plays the game. He honestly has no clue about anything. And before you get the wrong impression, I'm not saying this to be mean. I'm saying this to protect people who are new to the forums and aren't familiar to vines. You can ask anyone on these forums that has been around long enough to read some of the things vines posts.

[_greenie]

Put simply, I am drunk and don't understand a word here... I do an Engineering degree and ultimately - no matter how you put it, 98-95 = +3 and 95-98 = -3.

Can you break this into easy steps so people can look at your logic? At the moment it is a jumble, even for a sober person.

that's your problem...
go out, bash your head against a wall a couple of times until you become dizzy, drink some serious booze and to ensure it will make sense, smoke some pot =)

[D_Silver]

If Im going to mass thief op someone I do 4 ops with low thieves. With 4 ops you get a pretty good idea how the next 20-30 will go.
4/4 success = Good to go
3/4 success = Not bad don't send too many thieves.
2/4 success = Only worth it if your gnome and its against the NS target.
1/4 success = No, not a good idea.
0/4 success = Hang up the ninja boots and retire.

[otokonoko]

I understand the greater logic of VINES,

You need to cast greater insight, to do this you need, opium, a bottle of metholated spirits, 3 syringes filled with morphine.

After you have greater insight, you cast greater inspiration to hopefully attract others to learn greater insight.

Not recommended for anyone under 18yo or under your states/country legal age drinking limit.
Warning: May distort your sense of reality. May have additional unknown health effects. Use at your own risk.