President of Europe

[freemehul]

I know that right now there's a lot of talk going on about who are the likely candidates for the new office of President of Europe. Some likely candidates are: Bertie Ahern (Ireland), Tony Blair (UK), Paavo Lipponen (Finland), Jean Claude Junckers (Luxembourg) and Jan Peter Balkenende (Netherlands).

While Blair is frequently mentioned as a candidate for the office in all truthfullness it is very likely that he will not get it. It is likely that the council and the commission will be held by a social democratic candidate (Barroso) and the other committees by a various liberal candidates (Nelie Kroes), so in return the conservatists and centre right want their share and that share is likely to be the president of europe. Blair being a former labour PM, as such basically is not of the right political colour. For the same reason Paavo Lipponen is therefore not a likely candidate. Another thing that works against Blair is that he is a former PM of a large european nation and France and Germany will object to that. Both Junckers and Ahern are not quite close enough to the political spectre that the larger nations may be looking for.

So that leaves only one possible candidate and that is Jan Peter Balkenende. Angele Merkel seems to approve of Balkenende as a candidate. While it is nice to know that the Netherlands may actually have a shot at bringing forth the new President of the European Union, it worries me a lot, not so much for Europe but for the Netherlands.

Balkenende is the current Prime-Minister of the Netherlands, if he leaves, then we'll need a replacement. That may either mean that a weak political vice-president will takeover, or that elections will be held. The political atmosphere in the Netherlands is so bad right now, that I fear our democracy may fall apart and bring forth a dictator and that scares me.

The current polls show a substantial victory for every kind of political extremist party whether that be on the left, centre or right. Until now this used to be no real problem, because whatever happened there would always be a strong political moderate party in the coalition that would keep things together. In recent years that political party was the CDA (the very same party where Balkenende is from). In the last few months this political party has seen some internal turmoil and that is not good. It means that political intrigue may become a problem. A good working coalition needs to have minimum parties required to get a working majority in parliament. The current polls show that whatever coalition is formed at least 3 political parties need to be in it. All the larger established and moderate political parties combined with the current polls will have a minority in parlaiment (that's the first time this happened in our history, not even in the thirties of the previous century did this happen). So whatever government coalition is formed, you know that it will include at least one extremist party. In the previous coalitions these extremists were either marred by internal political strife or a lack of real power, because they held few seats in parliament. That is not likely to be the case if elections will be held soon. I do not like Balkenende and I certainly would not vote for him and heck his health may actually fail him anyway and I find it odd to say this, but damnit man we need him here to keep things together. Please for the love of everything that is good, there has got to be another likely candidate? What about that Austrian guy?

[raiman]

I'm voting for Alfred E. Newman

[freemehul]

I'm voting for Alfred E. Newman

it's sad to know that may have some truth in it...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/21mad.jpg

[Bastion]

I would love to see Tony Blair as president. Just to see the look on his face when the Conservatives take power in Britain next year and start withdrawing us from the europe.

[freemehul]

I highly doubt that will ever happen

[Bastion]

Agree, it is unlikely Blair will get to be President.

The conservatives will get into power next year. They will start withdrawing us fom Europe.

How far they get ...........

[freemehul]

withdrawing from europe is not a good thing, especially with the recent credit crisis you need europe to impose legislation towards banks.

[Scavenger]

Ehm a dictator in The Netherlands?
Hiiiiiiiighly unlikely.
In our country covernments can fall for someone not washing his hands after using the toilet.
You think a dictator stands a chance?

[Cortez The Killer]

hope to hell Tony Blair dousnt get it...

vote Frank Bruno for president

[freemehul]

Ehm a dictator in The Netherlands?
Hiiiiiiiighly unlikely.
In our country covernments can fall for someone not washing his hands after using the toilet.
You think a dictator stands a chance?

according to the polls the 3 biggest moderate political parties have 69 seats in parlaiment. Second chamber has 150 seats, ergo 69 seats is a minority. Due to the political polarisation that takes place the extremists are winning more seats in the polls instead of losing them. That means that any government coalition that is made, it will include an extremist party. The two biggest extremist parties are the socialists (SP) and the fascists (PVV or Wilders' group). CDA still is the biggest party in the polls, so that means they get to decide what government coalition is formed. They must either chose to form a 4 parties coalition or a 3 parties coalition, the latter is more likely, because it is easier to form. If it is a 3 parties coalition then there are 2 basic choices: 1. CDA, PvdA and SP or CDA, VVD and PVV. The latter is more likely because CDA is conservative and as such will prefer a right-wing coalition instead of a left-wing coalition. Another thing is that during the coalition formation the Queen plays a role. There's already been an assassination attempt on the royal family, which fortunately failed, but who's to say the next one will fail? Both CDA and VVD are internally weak now, which means that political intrigue will be a problem and that means Wilders has a very real chance to get the upper-hand in any political deal making and coalition making. Past events like the Verdonk motion of no confidence have shown that our constitution is weak and so the second chamber divided as it is will have a very tough time getting rid of Wilders and his croonies. The only thing that stands between Wilders and his future tyrannical rule is the first chamber. Elections for the first chamber are in 2011, that's not a lot of time. What's more the first chamber can only choose to oppose or favor a bill of law, but they can not amend it. That means everything will come to a standstill. If Wilders at least gets internal affairs or the justice department, he can basically use his power to harass the opposition into submission. There have been recent events where hooligans caused mayhem in Rotterdam and a man actually died. When that happens it is all over and we will either get civil war or tyrannical rule with concentration camps and gassed muslims.

The moderate parties are not doing a good job of fighting Wilders here too. In the past the NSB was fought with far greater success. I think that if they wish to stop Wilders, they will probably have to amend article 3 in the constitution.

so don't say it can't happen, it can happen...

[freemehul]

Good news is that there's some rumors going on that van Rompuy (a Belgian PM) may get to be the new president of europe.

I sincerally hope he'll get the job. He'll have my blessing....

[Safri]

i doubt the conservatives will withdraw britain from europe, also john bruton from Ireland declared his intrest in the president job, although he's a serious outsider

[freemehul]

if he's an outsider then it's unlikely he'll get the job.

in general it's an unknown insider, what politicans call a "dark horse", who gets the job

[Mopreme]

van Rompuy would be a good choice.

[Safri]

a bbc article on some of the potential candidates:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7371840.stm