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Thread: Bouncing on Supposed Oversends

  1. #16
    Post Demon
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    You can undersend like 9% and still succeed, tho the chance is extremely small. I believe it was Mehul who wrote it in, just weighted it weirdly so it barely worked or something.

    I dunno why you think it's stupid really. It does reflect reality, which I think was what Mehul intended. Enabling risk taking is fun, adds some spice.
    Last edited by Luc; 04-12-2009 at 21:47.

  2. #17
    Post Fiend D_Silver's Avatar
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    Bishop, I started to mathematically figure out your 16.3% bounce chance and went cross eyed. You must have a formula somewhere and I know its a fairly simple one, I just can't think of it right now. Do you mind posting it?

  3. #18
    Post Demon
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    Quote Originally Posted by D_Silver View Post
    Bishop, I started to mathematically figure out your 16.3% bounce chance and went cross eyed. You must have a formula somewhere and I know its a fairly simple one, I just can't think of it right now. Do you mind posting it?
    He bases that on an algorithm I made to just count how many of the possible combinations of off and def gives a result of less than 0.97. We don't know how many decimals they use, and if it's an even distribution at all, so it could be wrong. But if it's not, it'd be somewhere around 16%. 9%, 4%, 1% respectively for 1, 2 and 3% oversend.

    I wish I had paid more attention in my mathematical statistics class 2 years ago, so I'd have some reason to think I'm doing this right :P

  4. #19
    Post Fiend D_Silver's Avatar
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    So I would be right to think that a 3% oversend would be a less then 1% chance of failure?

  5. #20
    Post Demon
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    Somewhere around 1% yeah

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