Nearly no thievery fail even with high WT

[florins]

April 23 of YR2 2 acres of 2 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 2 acres of 2 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 Tornadoes scour the lands, causing the destruction of 35 acres of buildings!
April 23 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
April 23 of YR2 Our mages noticed a possible spell attempt by * (*:*) causing trouble on our lands!
April 23 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
April 23 of YR2 4 acres of 4 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!
April 23 of YR2 5 acres of 5 watch towers buildings burned down!

I believe something is wrong with this. 24 thievery ops, 4 failed only (14.2% failed only). Before the ops started I had 26% WT (So not just 15% or so). A 34% chance to catch them. Chance on this randomly going through like this with a 25% fail rate would even be below 5%.

From my past before this:
January 23 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
January 23 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
January 23 of YR2 4,002 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 2,352 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 1,382 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 812 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 478 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 281 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 165 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 97 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 23 of YR2 57 bushels were stolen from our granaries!

9 times successfull in a row with a 35% chance to fail (Had 25% WT back then, 35% fail rate according to growth page) means the chance on this should only be 3%.

January 11 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
January 11 of YR2 10,690 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
January 11 of YR2 6,098 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 3,475 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
January 11 of YR2 1,980 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 1,128 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 643 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 366 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 208 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
January 11 of YR2 119 bushels were stolen from our granaries!

Again, nearly no fails here. Though at least it's closer to what it should have been (3 out of 12 -> 25%).

For your info, these are almost ALL thievery ops that have been done on me in the past 4 days. This is 3 instances of a batch of thievery ops with less fails then the WT should have given. In the last 2 cases I should have had a 35% fail rate from WT. In the 1st case it went from 34% down to 23.18%.
I know it's hard to get a good fix on the exact fail rate of thievery due to succesfull intel ops not showing in papers. Still I think 3 attempted batches of ops succeeding this often on a high WT running province is not right.

Only 1 other "batch" of thievery was done on me in these 4 days:
March 14 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
March 14 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
March 14 of YR2 9,285 runes of our runes were stolen!
March 14 of YR2 43,188 bushels were stolen from our granaries!
March 14 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
March 14 of YR2 22,439 bushels were stolen from our granaries!

It's 3 out of 6. Assuming none of these fails were from getting intel (Which I think they did get, as they didn't try stealing cash). Just posting these to be somewhat complete.

Based on the damage ops received so far, I think the average fail rate was about 15-20%.

[Bishop]

whats your tpa?

[florins]

More thievery on me so more info. Though this matches the rate better (Actually in my favor this time):

May 1 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 1 of YR2 16 gold coins were stolen from our coffers!
May 1 of YR2 Our people decided to explore new territories and have settled 5 acres of new land.
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 16 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 15 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 18 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 17 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 16 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 15 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 15 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 14 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 14 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 14 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 13 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 13 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 12 of our troops were found dead today!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 2 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.

His raw tpa (Different and probably lower compared to the previous one): 2.88 (After the ops were done, so probably 3 tpa before)
Mine is at 0.35 tpa raw atm.

WT did increase in the meantime back to 26.65% chance to fail.

The ops before this I consider being done by high tpa ones (Halflings). Basically I consider them to succeed 100% when I would not have WT.

Nevertheless it's still wrong that it keeps succeeding that often in a row. Chances on chains of successfull ops should be really low when the WT increase.

[fausto]

Its % based, maybe in the next 20 ops, all will fail... ;)

[florins]

I know that. Still I posted nearly ALL damage ops (I had 1 more succesfull ops on me in that period. But no fails around it) over 4 days and clearly during that time the percentage of fails was low. Must say I've had more failed thieveries on me. But everything indicates most of those were from intel ops. As I don't know how many succesful intel ops have been taken from me, I can't measure with those. Actually it's probably hard to measure the average fail rate of thievery ops overall. You simply can't know how many thievery attempts have been done on you.
Reason to doubt the fail rate mostly is the chains of successfull ops. The chance 9 ops succeed on you with 35% fail rate from WT is only 2%. I know it happens. But if it happens I don't expect to see more chains of success happen that soon after another.

I don't think atm there is gonna be done anything about it. It's possible that it's a random occurrence (However small). I guess I'll keep track of the ops. So we can see how it is over a longer period. I guess the best way to proceed from this point is me to keep track of all damage ops done on me and the fails around them. As I run relatively low tpa, I guess nearly all fails can be contributed towards my WT. Will keep track of fail percentages from the WT at the times of the ops to (Obviously that changes a lot to).

[Ordray]

0.35 isn't just relatively low... Standard for attackers is 1.25-1.5 min.

[Bishop]

WTs mod the chance for them to fail - if the chance base is low then they cant mod much now can they? Its not a flat 35% (or whatever) chance to catch them. You need more TPA.

[florins]

You're wrong on that part. Directly from the growth page:

Watch Towers * 31.0% 40.18% chance of preventing enemy thief missions (0.69%)
60.27% rate of repelling individual enemy thieves from our borders (1.04%)

40.18% chance of preventing enemy thief missions. So 40.18% should fail. No matter the tpa. The rate of repelling enemy thieves is the reduction of damage when a thievery ops succeeds. The 40% is in no way a boost to the tpa. If it would be, all thievery ops would succeed on me. It's thieve dens that add to the modded tpa. Not watchtowers.

New info:
May 15 of YR2 49 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 15 of YR2 53 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 48 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 46 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 45 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 15 of YR2 43 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 15 of YR2 42 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 15 of YR2 40 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 39 of our troops were found dead today!
May 15 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 38 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 42 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 41 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 39 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 49 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 47 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 46 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 45 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 44 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 44 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 39 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 26 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 26 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 25 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 25 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 25 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 25 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 24 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 23 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves from * (*:*) causing trouble within our lands!
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!
May 16 of YR2 We have found thieves causing trouble within our lands. Unfortunately, we know not where they came from.
May 16 of YR2 22 of our troops were found dead today!

21 fails, 39 times success -> 35% fail rate. Again lower then it should be (40%). So far I've only seen 1 batch with a higher fail rate then the WT should have given me.

watchtowers are in no way a mod on the tpa to stop thievery. WT should work like clear sight. And they actually do. Just not the percentage it states it does.

Just for your info. I prefer them to do this on me over doing it on someone with less WT. The -60% effectivity does work properly. So even if they succeed, they need to succeed more then twice as much for the same damage. I'm only pointing out that the building should give a certain percentage of always fail chance. And that it doesn't reach that percentage. I consider this a bug. Whether it's fixed by changing the text of the WT's effect (Basically state the right percentage or correct effect) or by changing the fail rate when WT's are involved is up to you. Just don't give misleading numbers. As we can't make our strategy based on incorrect numbers.

[E_Boko]

It mods chances to catch thieves?!!!! Who knew that crap when it clearly says has a % chance to stop thieves in the wiki. As in it automatically stops ops regardless of tpa. Is CS based on tpa as well?

[Bishop]

wts are not an autofail, i'm pretty sure on that - ill see if i can dig up more info.

But regardless of that - a 40%chance does not mean you catch 40% of ops.

[florins]

Watch Towers * 31.0% 40.18% chance of preventing enemy thief missions (0.69%)

Then you gotta change this text to the correct text. An thief mission is considered an ops. And this just says 40.18% of the thief missions should fail.

Can you tell me what the watchtowers do exactly then?

[Bishop]

They increase your chance of stopping ops.

[Scavenger]

So to be 100% clear:
Do WT's stop a percentage of ops when defending prov/kd (0 tpa) is equal in nw as offending prov/kd (a million tpa) no fort stance etc?
yes/no

[Bishop]

no, not to my understanding - but your question is ambiguous.

[Palar]

So am i correct to assume that prov A with 90% success rate against prov B with WT netting 25% chance of preventing enemy thief missions, will only drop prov A success rate to 87.5% success rate? (10% fail rate * 1.25?)