TGs vs. Forts

[Ethan]

TGs don't help me get unbreakable either. Clearly I should skip those too.

We have 2 questions:
1. What is the optimal TG/Forts split for a static province X to get the best offense at a set defense. (Or set off/def ratio if you use that instead. Either being measured via DPA or DPNW as per personal preference.)
2. What dynamic factors impact this balance, and how much?


I've only just thought of this now, but I think it is probably the *only* **major** consideration in part 2. Every other effect I've seen is small in comparison. I argue this isn't that big a deal either, but I grant that is quite open to argument.

During a deep chain, a province with more forts will have more offensive units and fewer defensive units. Thus, the army out represents a bigger pop investment, and it is slightly easier to hit sufficient overpop.

Under a semi-chain, the def lost is a % of troops, so it doesn't matter except in the number of pes left around, which is tiny anyway. Same dpa in either case, though NW/A is very slightly higher in the forts case.


I still argue having the extra 2-4% (tested, Elf 2%, Orc 3.8%) of offense, that hopefully lets you hit a bigger target (for more land) or keep a few elites home (to mess up the deep chain and make it harder to start) is more valuable that the small difference in target acres needed for a deep chain. Heck, if you can hit for land cap, you've got 20% (or 22%) your initial size incoming - that is better chain defense than anything else.

[Danrelle]

Ethan got it. Pre-war, only static optimization of a province is important, very important.

Dynamical aspects cannot be very important because the time-scale on which land fluctuates in War is very very fast. So, appart from making you strong for the first wave of the War, your pre-War build won't affect much else down the line.

What matters in War, of course, is how you react to different situations. That is also strategy and should be discussed at some point, but elsewhere.

[hydroxon]

Just how many Maths majors are there talking in this thread!? So intimidating ...

[Danrelle]

I've already stated I work in Theoretical Physics research. But don't let stuff like that influence your judgement. An argument has nothing to do with the acreditation of the one supporting it. (even if he is a bishop)

EDIT: hydroxon, if you want to chat, you can find me on irc, nick Cor.

[hydroxon]

Wow, sounds really cool!

Well, it does give us an awareness of who knows what they're doing ... Some people just pretend to know Maths. Of course, those who already possess the relevant knowledge would be able to recognise each other anyway, so it's more for the benefit of the nubs (like me, maybe) :P

PS. JohnSnowstorm mentioned somewhere that he has a degree in Theoretical Physics :O

[Ethan]

I'm the actual math major - though I readily admit my continuous is shaky compared to some of the other fields. I'm sure the Physics people do much better calc, for example, cause I never use that stuff.

It is why I'm the one that "gave up" after hitting the quintic, though. That type of result is why the physicists still need actual math majors around, to spout that more esoteric stuff at them.

[Danrelle]

We do need fancy math sometimes... but not to describe this elegant and simple game. Approx works fine here and rules of thumb are actually what ppl are looking for.

[DDodge]

get on IRC Danrelle

[Bishop]

man, for all the qualifications here you guys really fail at basic concepts.

[John Snowstorm]

tl;dr

99 times out of 100 you want TGs.

PS. JohnSnowstorm mentioned somewhere that he has a degree in Theoretical Physics :O

Experimental, not Theoretical.

Pre-war, only static optimization of a province is important, very important.

Dynamical aspects cannot be very important because the time-scale on which land fluctuates in War is very very fast. So, appart from making you strong for the first wave of the War, your pre-War build won't affect much else down the line.

Incorrect, it'll take you approx 10 hours to get your armies home from your first hit (unless you're using WS in which case you're gonna get raped), and another 14 hours to build with BB, thats 24 hours before you can alter your build at all in real terms, thats half the war (given that most top wars are decided before the min time mark)

[Danrelle]

"Incorrect, it'll take you approx 10 hours to get your armies home from your first hit (unless you're using WS in which case you're gonna get raped), and another 14 hours to build with BB, thats 24 hours before you can alter your build at all in real terms, thats half the war (given that most top wars are decided before the min time mark)"

1. when your first land grab comes home, you end up with unbuilt land. So your build %s are already changed. More or less drastically depending on how many hits you've taken in the meantime.
2. 48 hrs is a min time War, but a conflict starts earlier and so do land fluctuations.

A build is more than how you arrange your land. There is no good way to arrange your land independently of other things in your province. Any static optimization of Forts and TGs you may have done, will also be strongly affected by the intensity of ops on you. It is also strongly affected by your prov's role in the War, which also changes quickly.

[Realest]

you'd think for all this math that is being done here.. people actually have a clue what theyre talking about. All we're building here are paper tigers.

[Zauper]

you'd think for all this math that is being done here.. people actually have a clue what theyre talking about. All we're building here are paper tigers.

Exactly. :/

Forts are good when they're good, and they're not when they're not. Generally speaking, if the forts don't make me safe (or pevent DTs/TTs), I'd rather have GS.

Generally speaking, offense is more valuable than defense, unless you're safe or could be safe.

[John Snowstorm]

"Incorrect, it'll take you approx 10 hours to get your armies home from your first hit (unless you're using WS in which case you're gonna get raped), and another 14 hours to build with BB, thats 24 hours before you can alter your build at all in real terms, thats half the war (given that most top wars are decided before the min time mark)"

1. when your first land grab comes home, you end up with unbuilt land. So your build %s are already changed. More or less drastically depending on how many hits you've taken in the meantime.
2. 48 hrs is a min time War, but a conflict starts earlier and so do land fluctuations.

A build is more than how you arrange your land. There is no good way to arrange your land independently of other things in your province. Any static optimization of Forts and TGs you may have done, will also be strongly affected by the intensity of ops on you. It is also strongly affected by your prov's role in the War, which also changes quickly.

fact is, top kd conflicts are rarely longer than 2-3 day affairs, that has been the trend for the past several ages. 24 hours is a massive chunk of time in a top kd conflict, you will be making 3 uniques with your original buildings. Having some great static province ain't worth diddly, you gotta have the builds that are gonna actually be usefull to you down the line.

in general: forts = bad.

[Danrelle]

Yeah JSS, I can agree that for ppl who War min time, the initial build is even more important. So how do You decide what will be good down the line? (seeing how you'd have to assume lots of things about what will actually happen down the line and seeing how what you assume actually influences not only what you build, but also what will happen)