Attacking help

[barbrolie]

I know this has been asked plenty of times before and answered, but I can't find the old posts, so please do tell me:

If I send 20%+1 thieves on a SOM, and I see that total defense at home is, say, x, then what is the minimum offense I need to send for a guaranteed successful attack?

Does this multiplier change in war? Does it change in war if attacking monarchs?

[Natsu]

You have to factor in the monarch bonus when obtaining the defense aspect of it. However, For the oversend calculation I believe it's 4.7~5% for Tactician (not exactly sure) and 7.6% for everyone else. Formula would be as follows:

Total Enemy defense * 1.05 = Military to send (Tactician)
Total Enemy defense * 1.076 = Military to send (Everyone else)

[Susie D.]

You need to send 7.26% more offense to get a guaranteed success. If you're not a tactician, nothing changes in war. When you're attacking a monarch in war, you need to add another 10% to the target's defense.

An easier way to get the intel is usually getting a SoT with 20% + 1 thieves, then getting a SoM with 10 thieves. Army away is always accurate on SoM's, so you can combine the army away from the SoM with the total defense in the SoT to get the equivalent of a SoM with 20% + 1 thieves. (this way is easier, because SoT's are a lot easier to get than SoM's)

If you're a tactician in war, just get a SoM with 10 thieves. It will be 100% accurate, so you only have the game's random factor to consider. Send 4.06% more offense than the SoM shows defense in this case to get a guaranteed win.

[Persain]

You have to factor in the monarch bonus when obtaining the defense aspect of it. However, For the oversend calculation I believe it's 4.7~5% for Tactician (not exactly sure)

1.0404=100% chance to break via wiki for 100% accurate intel

[Ethan]

1.0404=100% chance to break via wiki for 100% accurate intel

1.04036[and more decimals], if memory serves. So yes, 4.04% oversend is safe. If you care for the exact value, it should be .97*1.035/.965 - and you can figure this out from the random factor values listed in the wiki, if you care enough to check it.

I also don't remember the exact value for non-tactician, but 7.26% oversend is rounded up and therefore safe. It should be 1.035/.965, because the .97 from intel and fixed target cancel.

Other than that one glitch (that Persain noted first), Susie's post is spot on. You *can* get SoT+SoM intel, and it is usually better to learn how, instead of always requiring a 20%+1 SoM. If you get really tricky, you can do multiple SoTs, and take the lowest one (or combination of lowest ones) to figure the maximum actual defense - remember the 7.26% oversend already assumes the worst possible luck on intel (aka, it is a low as it could have been, trying to "trick" you into an oversend), so actually using the lowest valued intel (that is up to date!) can't hurt.

AFAIK, Monarch is actually def * 1.1, so it "adds" 10% after all other mods are already in. Other mods (generals, for example) "add" in different places, and make a mess of it all. Wiki's good for all my (limited) testing to date, so use it if you are unsure where in the process a bonus gets used.

[barbrolie]

Thanks for all the responses.

I'd like to clarify one thing though. The monarch defense bonus does not show in the SoT? And therefore has to be factored in manually? Am I understanding this correctly?

[nooblet]

Monarch and Warrior bonus doesn't show in SoT/SoM, because it's dependent on relations.

Monarch boosts defense by 10% of what is shown in-game, so if you are hitting a monarch in war, just remember to add 10% to whatever defense you get from normal intel, then account for random factor/intel inaccuracy. There is no need to make it more complicated than that.

[barbrolie]

Sigh. I am back :-(

Ok, so I think I understand how to combine info from the SoT and the SOM to get accurate intel. I want to confirm that I understand this right. Hope someone can check my calculation.

SoT:
Total Leets = L_T
Total Def Specs = D_T
Total Defense Home = DEF

SoM:
Leets Out = L_O

Knowns:
Def Spec Strength = S1
Leet Def Strength = S2


Calculation
Def Bonus = B = DEF/(D_T* S1 + L_T * S2)
Raw Defense Home = (L_T - L_O) * S2 + D_T * S1
Mod Defense Home = Raw Def Home * B
Guaranteed Break = 1.0726 * Mod Defense Home


Yes?

[nooblet]

I think so.

When in doubt, assume the lowest value for B possible, to place the least weight on elites out - this will be an oversend, but it's better than a bounce. I am not certain, but I think with whatever raw values are listed on SoT, mod defense/raw defense will return a DME value which is no more than 3% inaccurate.

[Ethan]

I think so.

When in doubt, assume the lowest value for B possible, to place the least weight on elites out - this will be an oversend, but it's better than a bounce. I am not certain, but I think with whatever raw values are listed on SoT, mod defense/raw defense will return a DME value which is no more than 3% inaccurate.

I don't think that is true, actually. My understanding is that each individual value (specs, elites, sols, Mod_Def) is +-3%, but if they happen to go in opposite directions, the calced DME can be *way* off. However, I claim the DME calced from the raw values of the SoT suffice, due to the following reason. To change the DME from the raw value (which is equivalent to the "all maxed" value where every troop value, and DME, are all divided by .97), one of either the DME or the troops home must be lower. (Since we assumed max possible given the intel.) Thus, either MD is lower (so we are safe), elites are lower (so elites out is a larger %, so we are safe), or d_specs are lower (so existing elite% out is a larger portion of the total defense, so we are safe).

While I believe this logic is sound (and I use it myself in my excel calc), it is *not* a proof, so in theory I've screwed up and this puts you at risk.

...
Calculation
Def Bonus = B = DEF/(D_T* S1 + L_T * S2)
Raw Defense Home = (L_T - L_O) * S2 + D_T * S1
Mod Defense Home = Raw Def Home * B
Guaranteed Break = 1.0726 * Mod Defense Home

Yes?

I think we can do a little better. As far as I can see, that is safe, but breaking up the intel inaccuracy, and the attack random factor, might eek a slightly lower safe value. (Of course, lower can still work... but we don't want to take a risk. Or, we want to know we are taking as risk at least, if we *choose* to go under the safe limit.)

Thus, I'd aim, instead of trying to calc "Mod Def Home", to calc "MAX Mod Def Home". Thus, I think the calc is as follows (with your variables):

Def Bonus = B = DEF/(D_T* S1 + L_T * S2) --See note to nooblet about this part!
Maximal Raw Defense Home = (L_T/.97 - L_O) * S2 + D_T/.97 * S1
Maximal Mod Defense Home = Raw Def Home * B
Guaranteed Break = 1.0404 * Maximal Mod Defense Home


Note how L_O is *not* divided by .97, while both other terms were. L_O came from a SoM that has that value 100% correct, thus there is no range of error.

Also note, you can get really tricky if you want (as my excel calc does), and see that, on the SoM, L_O + L_I/.5 (eLites In) > real L_T. Thus, if SoT L_T is greater than this, you can set it down, since you can always use the "least useful" (lowest, "best") intel because you assumed that was what you had already. Normally this happens only when L_I is very small, aka they sent almost all their elites. The /.5 represents the +-50% (or is it 25% now?) on 10 thief intel.


It should be noted, this is all advanced attacking calcs. Your calculation is already more than many attackers ever figure out, so if I just confused you too much (as I am prone to doing)... don't worry about it, it shouldn't ever really be needed. At best I've found this stuff maybe saves 100-200 elites, and maybe 1 bounce/age, over just following the crowd. (For example - you'll bounce on wrong target, or forgetting king bonus, more often that this stuff will ever get you.)

Final word of warning - either your calc, or mine, requires you use the def/elite strengths, S1 and S2 (both for "B" and for the "RDef_Home"). My implementation is in excel, so I have to update it manually. Forgetting to do so is my #1 cause of bounces: watch out for that!

[Persain]

Sigh. I am back :-(
Yes?

Other than the fact that you forgot solds your calculation its correct.

Thus u end up with:
Def Bonus = B = DEF/(D_T* S1 + L_T * S2+ #solds)
Raw Defense Home = (L_T - L_O) * S2 + D_T * S1 +#solds-solds out

BTW If you have angel installed its VERY easy to get mod def at home. Copy SOT in angel. Def seen in sot should equal def angel says. Then do 1 theif som. Get number of solds out, number of leets out. Remove out solds/leets out from total, to get mod def...i get the same value when i use the calculation as above...not saying angel is god, but it definitely supports this over all the extra stuff Ethan says.

[barbrolie]

Other than the fact that you forgot solds your calculation its correct.

Thus u end up with:
Def Bonus = B = DEF/(D_T* S1 + L_T * S2+ #solds)
Raw Defense Home = (L_T - L_O) * S2 + D_T * S1 +#solds-solds out

BTW If you have angel installed its VERY easy to get mod def at home. Copy SOT in angel. Def seen in sot should equal def angel says. Then do 1 theif som. Get number of solds out, number of leets out. Remove out solds/leets out from total, to get mod def...i get the same value when i use the calculation as above...not saying angel is god, but it definitely supports this over all the extra stuff Ethan says.

Angel doesn't run on OS X. Blame Steve Jobs.

Thanks for fixing the bit with soldiers.

Final word of warning - either your calc, or mine, requires you use the def/elite strengths, S1 and S2 (both for "B" and for the "RDef_Home"). My implementation is in excel, so I have to update it manually. Forgetting to do so is my #1 cause of bounces: watch out for that!

I see your point with the optimizations. Once I get this calc working right, and I make sure that I don't bounce, I'm going to try the optimizations that you posted.