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Thread: Desertion Calculation -- 20 Credit Prize Inside

  1. #1
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    Desertion Calculation -- 20 Credit Prize Inside

    I am offering 20 credits to the first person* who can post the answer to how many desertions I received based on the information below**. This is real data taken previously this age and the actual number of desertions is already known. You have to show your calculations to get the credits. I've been assured that the wiki for this calculation is accurate so this should be very easy.

    Total Population: 38039
    Maximum Population: 25848
    Peasants: 3847
    Thieves: 2000
    Wizards: 4259
    Wizards Trained: 4
    Soldiers (total): 969
    Soldiers (at home): 680
    Soldiers (drafted): 0
    OSpecs (all out): 4292
    DSpecs: 4480
    DSpecs (in training - total): 191
    DSpecs (training next tick): 61
    Elites (all out): 18001

    Meteors:***
    Peasant Deaths: 27
    DSpec Deaths: 23


    *You must have an active account and be willing to tell me (via PM) where to send the credits.
    **If the information given is not adequate for calculating total desertions, a new set of data will be provided with the added information.
    ***I assume meteor deaths are taken after the desertion calculation, but the numbers have been included just in case.
    Last edited by Mary Lennox; 24-10-2012 at 19:10.

  2. #2
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    i'm the first desertion!

    GIMME THE CASHHHHHHHHHH
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  3. #3
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    269 peasants die
    2384 desertions should occur
    you should lose soldiers and def specs only

    There are quite feq things missing: soldiers drafted, wizards trained ar two of those.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by csarmi View Post
    269 peasants die
    2384 desertions should occur
    you should lose soldiers and def specs only

    There are quite feq things missing: soldiers drafted, wizards trained ar two of those.
    Thanks for your reply. I will append the original post. Here is the information:

    Wizards Trained: 4
    Soldiers Drafted: 0

  5. #5
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    1609 desertions. No idea how they are split up. No idea if I am right. Don't care enough about 20 credits to show how I got this. Just curious what the actual number was. Should be very close.
    Last edited by Petrified; 24-10-2012 at 19:30.

  6. #6
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    It depends on orders of operations and rounding and assuming there isnt a great failure in the formula
    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Lennox View Post
    ***I assume meteor deaths are taken after the desertion calculation, but the numbers have been included just in case.
    Max should be (least peasents leave, then add 1 each for rounding theives/dsepcs/solds/leets/opsecs at home and away)

    peasants:(3847-4)*.07=269.01
    max pop:1.15*25848=29725.2
    0.2*(38039-269-29725)=1609+10=>1619

    Min should be (most peasents leave, MS first, then subtract 1 each for rounding theives/dsepcs/solds/leets/opsecs)
    peasants:(3847-4)*.07=269.01
    max pop:1.15*25848=29725.2
    0.2*(38039-270-29726-27-23)=1598.6-10=>1588

    If u want a number better btween 1619 and 1588 and to know the exact formula i'd need to reverse it from your actual number. To many variables for 20 credits :P

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petrified View Post
    1609 desertions. No idea how they are split up. No idea if I am right. Don't care enough about 20 credits to show how I got this. Just curious what the actual number was. Should be very close.
    Thanks for the reply. Your answer is not really close at all.

    I will post the answer once I receive a fair number of guesses/attempts.

    I should note, I will forgive rounding errors etc.

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    So both Persain and I are way off. Interesting. Are you sure about all your numbers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Persain View Post
    It depends on orders of operations and rounding and assuming there isnt a great failure in the formula


    Max should be (least peasents leave, then add 1 each for rounding theives/dsepcs/solds/leets/opsecs at home and away)

    peasants:(3847-4)*.07=269.01
    max pop:1.15*25848=29725.2
    0.2*(38039-269-29725)=1609+10=>1619

    Min should be (most peasents leave, MS first, then subtract 1 each for rounding theives/dsepcs/solds/leets/opsecs)
    peasants:(3847-4)*.07=269.01
    max pop:1.15*25848=29725.2
    0.2*(38039-270-29726-27-23)=1598.6-10=>1588

    If u want a number better btween 1619 and 1588 and to know the exact formula i'd need to reverse it from your actual number. To many variables for 20 credits :P
    Hmm... this is still off by >100% (meaning the actual number was either more than twice what you posted or less than half of what you posted).

  10. #10
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    actually, I forgot to add the 115%

    so normally 1609 desertions should occur

    I don't have a clue how that normally works, which order, etc
    but if it is maxed at 20%/troops type too, then you'd lose 400 thieves and 909 def specs. the def specs do leave, the thieves get replaced with solds
    dunno how the solds get handled either

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    wiki is obviously wrong then?

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    give it to Persain!
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Lennox View Post
    Hmm... this is still off by >100% (meaning the actual number was either more than twice what you posted or less than half of what you posted).
    I call BS your numbers HAVE to be off, i've had multiple desertions before and doing a quick calculation like 0.2*(Pop-MAXpop*1.15) always gave me something "close" In your case that would mean ~1,662. And while that's an overestimate its not THAT far off and has always been close enough for me.

    Anyway that would be an overestimate so if you're claiming 100% off you're saying actual desertions were <1588/2=794. I dont buy it. If your SURE your numbers are correct just grab a quick extra set of data (i dont have on hand) and solve for ~ the values you'd expect.

    2 ticks worth of data u can get a reasonable guess. Simple assume only peasants leave before desertion calc. Then do
    Desertion rate=x (ie % desert)
    Desertion pop=y (ie pop over which desertion occurs)
    A1= 38039-269
    A2=acutal pop- peas*.07 in next data
    B1=25848
    B2= max pop in next data
    D1=desertions u have
    D2=desertions in next data

    Solveing for x & y means in a simple formula of x*(A-y*B)=D can give you a value for approximately how off the numbers are in the wiki for at least the 2 main variables we care about.

    Desertion rate=D1/(A1-B1*Desertion pop)======currently i assumed this is 20%
    Desertion pop= (a2*d1-a1*d2)/(b2*d1-b1*d2)===currently i assumed this is 115%
    Last edited by Persain; 24-10-2012 at 20:44. Reason: typo in last formula

  14. #14
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    I can also confirm I've done multiple quick tests of this and the real numbers are rather close to the formula on the wiki. OP you dun goofed somewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeroy View Post
    wiki is obviously wrong then?
    I have been under that impression for a while, but I just assumed I was doing something wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Persain View Post
    I call BS your numbers HAVE to be off, i've had multiple desertions before and doing a quick calculation like 0.2*(Pop-MAXpop*1.15) always gave me something "close" In your case that would mean ~1,662. And while that's an overestimate its not THAT far off and has always been close enough for me.

    Anyway that would be an overestimate so if you're claiming 100% off you're saying actual desertions were <1588/2=794. I dont buy it. If your SURE your numbers are correct just grab a quick extra set of data (i dont have on hand) and solve for ~ the values you'd expect.

    [...]
    I will post another set of data once things change a little in my prov.

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