Are magic/thievery ops markovian processes?

[TheOne]

Hi guys,

I'm new to this game and I am a geek! A question just came to my mind just now... and i need to flex my ADVANCED DEGREE knowledge.. (hope i aint the only1 with an advanced degree in this game.. anyone knows someone else who has 1?). This is in regards to magic/thievery ops.

Are magic/thievery ops markovian processes? I.e: memory-less -> where the previous casts do not affect the outcome of the next cast.

I know many would say they are memory-less, im new to this game, but has anyone tested this mathematically and did a hypothesis testing based on a proper sample size + confidence interval (where the null hypothesis is that magic/thievery ops are markovian proccesses?)

Please advice me, I'm new to this game.

Cheers
cJ

[Bishop]

They are completely independent.

[kazinji]

But I feel clicking to fast doing a FB chain fails more >.>

[CPTK]

I find that success or failure of an op depends entirely on whether I close my eyes as I hit the button. If I arrogantly hit the button in a casual manner, failure is almost certain. If I close my eyes, hit the button, and peek at the result, I get fairly good success rates.

[LCP]

You have a higher success rate if you wear wizard robe & hat IRL while casting. Otherwise, it is independant

[Palem]

I find I have better success on Tuesdays and Thursdays, provided it's not between noon and 6PM.

[StratOcastle]

Must agree with Bishop. I know mark and he tells me he has nothing to do with Utopian ops.

Off topic: does anyone else use 'pull my finger' for aid thread?

[TheOne]

i find that i have more success doing ops when i'm in my birthday suit!

[reQi]

nekkid waves ftw!!

[kingarc]

lcp is right def more successfull if you have webcam and look the part of mage lol

[tiggis]

lcp is right def more successfull if you have webcam and look the part of mage lol

Its a man..... man....

[Province of Cheese]

Markov decision processes (MDPs), named after Andrey Markov, provide a mathematical framework for modeling decision making in situations where outcomes are partly random and partly under the control of a decision maker. MDPs are useful for studying a wide range of optimization problems solved via dynamic programming and reinforcement learning. MDPs were known at least as early as the 1950s (cf. Bellman 1957). A core body of research on Markov decision processes resulted from Ronald A. Howard's book published in 1960, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes. They are used in a wide area of disciplines, including robotics, automated control, economics, and manufacturing.

wikipedia says it is scientifically random, so being naked is just a bonus.

[Andurilas]

I had wondered this before, without knowing what Markovian processes were. There's a sunk-cost problem once you fail a spell/op on a particular province. Knowing that it is Markovian means it is better to move on rather than throwing good mana after bad.

[Bishop]

Spells and ops are independent of each other, as i have said already.

[Andurilas]

I know. I was making a related observation, in light of your clarification, about player psychology.