Question about thievery

[Onlyzinc]

can some one explain the thievery formula a little better than the guide does?
from the guide "The ratio of your TPA to your opponent's TPA will determine the success rate of your conducted thievery ops. "

so is 1:1 50% success rate?

thief ops:
riots what is the max a person can get riots and how is the length calculated

if someone has riots for 12 days does giving them riots again for 3 days lessen it?
like how if I have Ms for 8 hours and someone else cast it on me for 5 hours it goes to 5 hours for the new op

[fawk]

success rate: is a function of your tpa vs targets tpa, plus relative nw between you.
the exact ratio of tpa to ratio of success is unknown, though some ops (like incite riots) are easier than others (aw, prop..)

riots, unlike spells, will not shorten if it is redone on a shorter duration.

[Onlyzinc]

the game mechanics must have some form of formula for success then just ratio, I've seen Mod ~11tpa fail repeatedly vs mod ~2tpa last age ratio of about 6:1 you would think would have 100% success regardless of randomness

[crease]

the game mechanics must have some form of formula for success then just ratio, I've seen Mod ~11tpa fail repeatedly vs mod ~2tpa last age ratio of about 6:1 you would think would have 100% success regardless of randomness

nw difference, cs/wt all cause extra fails. Nw diff is a pretty big killer on success rates.

[Onlyzinc]

this test was done on someone with no wts or clear sight
was done on a nw target 88% size

had less fails intra Kd then out of KD

if KD NW comes into play there was a bigger KD NW difference then i would have liked

[Palem]

intra-kd isn't a good way to test game mechanics because there's too many factors that get messed with

[Onlyzinc]

had less fails intra Kd then out of KD

thats why i ran multiple tests

[Bishop]

Thievery intra kd isn't the same mechanically as thievery out of kingdom, you'll get different results

[Onlyzinc]

then can you elaborate on thievery out of KD because the ratio isnt exact. 6:1 on a target that has no WTs and No CS and 88% of your NW you shouldn't fail on
instead of:
7/10 of the first 10 [Success/attempt]
17/30
ending at 38/50
avg of 70% success for a 6:1 ratio

a formula would be nice like the attacking formula

[Bishop]

I dont have a formula, but its not a straight tpa:tpa comparison. Amount of thieves sent is a big factor on success rates.

[Onlyzinc]

thank you that is helpful. is there a chance of obtaining a formula or a better way to estimate success rate in the future?

[topsy's revenge]

If you are succeeding but still having thieves die on you then you are mostl ikely oversending and should send less(as this effects success rate). If you are in range then 2x mod tpa will have pretty solid successrate(not counting cs/wt). On rogue ops 4x will get you pretty decent results and 5x will be solid enough to actually do without slaughtering yourself.

[Onlyzinc]

If you are succeeding but still having thieves die on you then you are mostl ikely oversending and should send less(as this effects success rate). If you are in range then 2x mod tpa will have pretty solid successrate(not counting cs/wt). On rogue ops 4x will get you pretty decent results and 5x will be solid enough to actually do without slaughtering yourself.

but where is the math to support this, is all i'm asking

[noobium]

The exact math on success rate is hidden in a black box somewhere. Generally 3:1 tpa is enough to get a decent success rate for most ops, depends on number of thieves sent.

The other questions:
"thief ops:
riots what is the max a person can get riots and how is the length calculated"

Max duration is about 16 hours I think? The length has a large random factor, and the base thieves to send for duration is based on the caster's acre size (i think? could be based on target's size or nw) Sending 3-4 tpa usually gets the maximum duration.
Riots only replace existing riots is the duration is longer, in order to prevent someone from starting 0 day riots on their allies.

[Persain]

The other questions:
"thief ops:
riots what is the max a person can get riots and how is the length calculated"

Max duration is about 16 hours I think?

Early indications show that our operation was a success. Our thieves have caused rioting. It is expected to last 17 days.

max i've seen is 22 hours