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Thread: Ukraine says has 'compelling evidence' of plane shoot down

  1. #16
    Forum Fanatic Elldallan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    Look I'm not saying international law doesn't matter. I am saying that quoting international law, will not get you very far in this situation when it comes to prevention and taking care of things.
    Agreed that it cannot prevent anything on it's own. But it is what gives us(the western world) the basis from which we can justify taking action. If the west takes strong and decisive action it will create a deterrent because the ones taking the actions will have to worry that they will be actioned in one manner or other.
    Now, the west hasn't exactly been great at upholding these values which is part of the reason that we're where we're currently at.

    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    Where there is no justice, I hate to say it, vengeance becomes an effective tool against further injustice. Its not because it is emotional, in such a situation it actually becomes rational to enact realpolitik. There is an evolutionary reason why vengeance exists as an emotion and granted it can be bad, but within limits it can be used to prevent further evil. What you're thus saying, is that any person that has an emotion must be a bad human being. I seriously disagree with that kind of reasoning.
    It's not that vengeance can be bad, it is always bad without exception. Because the reason from whence it stems is not to mete out just punishment, it is from your own urge to cause greater harm to those that hurt you than they inflicted, it can therefore never be right to any reasonable person(distraught persons are rarely reasonable or rational).
    No, I'm not saying that you'd be bad for having the emotion, emotions are part of being human, it's nothing we can turn off at our convenience. But acting on it will make you no better than the original perpetrator and no free society should ever endorse it, it should punish it without remorse whenever and wherever it manifests itself.


    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    culpability is entirely ineffective in the grand scheme of things, because as I mentioned before, it gets you nowhere. Also I'm not saying you should send in the marines. I have never said that. Sending in the marines would be utter foolishness. Someone like Bontes for instance who is advocating for this, is a complete fool in my opinion and should not be taken seriously in anything. Rutte for example ignores this man and he's entirely correct in doing so. Never act directly against a person the likes of Putin, you will not gain anything from it.
    It is not ineffective because we as a state(or states) of law needs to have justification in taking action, we cannot just take action because we feel like it, not when the stakes are this high.
    Therefore culpability is a way of gaining us that justification, if it can be proved that the crash was not due to an accident but was in fact because it was shot down with a SAM system then we can justify crushing whatever remains of Russia's economy with crippling sanctions, and even(if that is what we wish) to send in the cavalry to clean up the mess that is the rebels in eastern Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    Look you clearly wish for the guest and host to exchange roles by advocating for a trial. That is strategically unsound here. The strategically sound option is to pilfer a goat. Take of your judges robe here for a second and start thinking like a statesman.
    I'm not advocating that there should be any trials, I'm advocating that we should use international law to justify our actions. There will be no courtrooms, no judges and no juries, but there will be states taking action(hopefully) and if we can establish guilt or culpability it is easier to justify the actions we take. If we can eliminate any reasonable doubt it will be easier to get other nations to rally behind sanctions and other necessary actions. Look at France for example who insists on continuing shipping their Mistral carriers to Russia, if we can eliminate the doubt that The rebels shot down the aircraft and that Russia is behind the rebels then they have to choose between stopping their shipment or being ostracized by the rest of Europe, as long as it's not clear where the guilt lies they can justify continuing their shipment by the fact that there's no evidence that Russia is behind all of this.

    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    Also consider this. You're optimistic in the sense that Putin will take the way out. You clearly haven't seen the pictures here, where Putin went to the Orthodox church and engaged in prayer. He's hiding, he's not taking the option out. I'm telling you, he will not take that way out, because he doesn't see it. His perception is too narrow for that. Tyrants are blind like that, even when they escape death and be given a second chance, they still won't see it. I think you're way too optimistic here and certainly not realistic.

    Look if it were true that he sees that way out and he takes that option out, I would have agreed with you here on this culpability issue, but Putin doesn't see it, therefore he will not take it.
    I never actually thought that Putin would actually take the way out, I was hoping against hope that he would though because it'd let the world deescalate this in a sensible manner, without it only passivity or escalation remains and personally I hope the west takes the latter option.
    Putin already had his Anschluss, we've seen this happen before so lets not tread down the same old path again, this time we need to tell "Hitler" that this is enough, either you back here and now or we take you out like the rabid dog you are, not a step further. The last thing the world needs is another Neville Chamberlain pronouncing that he's created peace in our time. We can't keep pandering to the madman because he'll only take that as a blessing to keep going, we need to stop him before it gets out of control

    And yes I know I just invoked Godwins law but for once the comparison is too accurate to ignore so please bear with me.
    Last edited by Elldallan; 23-07-2014 at 00:53.
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  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoYouLikeIt View Post
    usa is bulling rest of he world and noone can do anything why
    The only bully here at the moment is the rabid dog up in the Kremlin. For once I agree with the United States that we need to take swift and decisive action against that madman.
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  3. #18
    Forum Fanatic freemehul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Agreed that it cannot prevent anything on it's own. But it is what gives us(the western world) the basis from which we can justify taking action. If the west takes strong and decisive action it will create a deterrent because the ones taking the actions will have to worry that they will be actioned in one manner or other.
    Now, the west hasn't exactly been great at upholding these values which is part of the reason that we're where we're currently at.

    I agree with you there, we've been lax. I wouldn't say soft, we've been lax.


    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    It's not that vengeance can be bad, it is always bad without exception. Because the reason from whence it stems is not to mete out just punishment, it is from your own urge to cause greater harm to those that hurt you than they inflicted, it can therefore never be right to any reasonable person(distraught persons are rarely reasonable or rational).
    No, I'm not saying that you'd be bad for having the emotion, emotions are part of being human, it's nothing we can turn off at our convenience. But acting on it will make you no better than the original perpetrator and no free society should ever endorse it, it should punish it without remorse whenever and wherever it manifests itself.

    We will just have to disagree on that. I want to say this to it, though. Look at the past perspective, and I mean way past before there was any international law. You are thus claiming all your ancestors were bad people, because they didn't have international law. ;)




    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post


    It is not ineffective because we as a state(or states) of law needs to have justification in taking action


    again looking at past perspective I disagree here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Therefore culpability is a way of gaining us that justification,


    Again you will not gain anything from it, you will not gain prevention from it, nor comfort for the victims, nor putting a halt to Putin

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    There will be no courtrooms, no judges and no juries,


    so bottomline, quoting laws


    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    If we can eliminate any reasonable doubt it will be easier to get other nations to rally behind sanctions


    yeah and you gain that from research and not by quoting international laws, which bottomline is what it draws out to, if everyone were to agree with you here. It is the detective that will get you further than the lawyer here. I fail to see here, why you fail to see that. Elldallan I want to ask you a personal question. What is your job, or if currently inbetween jobs, what did you study?


    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Look at France for example who insists on continuing shipping their Mistral carriers to Russia

    yeah dragging their feet, we'll see that happen more, trust me, even from Dutch people you'll see that happen in the coming months. My biggest worry though isn't France. You wanna know which European country concerns me the most? It is Italy. There were no Italian victims on board that plane, and what is more concerning Berlusconi has won his appeal in the "Ruby" prostitute case.

    Look if there is one area where international law may work it is between the European countries, but against Russia, it is an entirely pointless excercise. Unfortunately you get people in the same boat by discipline, not by pointing out how bad the enemy is. I've tried that again and again and there are still suckers even on this forum who beg the question "why is it our problem".

    I think that one other way to enforce discipline may be through the European Union. The EU is originally an economic entity. European countries still buy oil and gas in their own seperate ways, while OPEC countries are banded together to determine price. Why not create a single EU purchasing power? That way you get a monopsony versus a cartel. It gives the EU a way better bargaining position to determine price.


    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    without it only passivity or escalation remains

    Look I can understand here, why you think that way. And unfortunately it is a correct assumption. And trust me in my eyes that makes you a good person with an optimistic outlook towards life, but it is unfortunately not your choice to make. The real world unfortunately is a lot harsher place.



    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Putin already had his Anschluss, we've seen this happen before so lets not tread down the same old path again, this time we need to tell "Hitler" that this is enough, either you back here and now or we take you out like the rabid dog you are, not a step further.
    entirely agree with you there. Not a single step further! And the first step against Tyrants is to take down their ability to wage wars. Wars cost money. Lets make this bastard a dirtpoor bastard.
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  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    I agree with you there, we've been lax. I wouldn't say soft, we've been lax.
    Well I'd say we've been both.


    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    We will just have to disagree on that. I want to say this to it, though. Look at the past perspective, and I mean way past before there was any international law. You are thus claiming all your ancestors were bad people, because they didn't have international law. ;)
    I was referring to law and justice in general, not international law. Most societies recognize that murder is wrong even if your reason for the killing was because the victim murdered one of your relatives, violence begets violence, it would never end.
    I would say that a society without law is a bad society yes, but pretty much all societies throughout history have had laws, even back in the stone age, maybe not codified and written down in legalese but they still had them, they were different than the laws we have now but change is an integral part of being human.


    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    again looking at past perspective I disagree here.

    Again you will not gain anything from it, you will not gain prevention from it, nor comfort for the victims, nor putting a halt to Putin
    True, deterrence would come from the actions taken, not the reasons or justifications behind them. The reasons are what makes our actions just and moral, and that is why I think the law here is important, it gives us a predictable framework which makes interactions between states easier, "as long as you follow this basic set of rules we'll trade and interact with you but if you break them we will smite you.


    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    so bottomline, quoting laws
    Yes, see above


    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    yeah and you gain that from research and not by quoting international laws, which bottomline is what it draws out to, if everyone were to agree with you here. It is the detective that will get you further than the lawyer here. I fail to see here, why you fail to see that. Elldallan I want to ask you a personal question. What is your job, or if currently inbetween jobs, what did you study?
    Of course it's the detective work that gets results here, just like a prosecutor needs evidence gathered by forensic specialists. Law in itself is useless, its just there to provides a framework for how we humans(and in this case states) interact with each other and to provide limits to whats permissible and to provide predictable consequences for transgressions.
    I'm currently studying for a Bachelor's degree in chemistry so no I'm not a lawyer :P

    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    yeah dragging their feet, we'll see that happen more, trust me, even from Dutch people you'll see that happen in the coming months. My biggest worry though isn't France. You wanna know which European country concerns me the most? It is Italy. There were no Italian victims on board that plane, and what is more concerning Berlusconi has won his appeal in the "Ruby" prostitute case.

    Look if there is one area where international law may work it is between the European countries, but against Russia, it is an entirely pointless excercise. Unfortunately you get people in the same boat by discipline, not by pointing out how bad the enemy is. I've tried that again and again and there are still suckers even on this forum who beg the question "why is it our problem".
    Yes, people are reluctant to take actions which may result in WWIII, that's understandable. National leaders are also reluctant to take actions which will harm their country(such as Russia shutting off the gas valves) because it'll harm their local opinion and cause them to not get reelected.
    I'm not sure what the Berlusconi case has to do with this, he's still banned from having a political office for the other crimes he was convicted of.

    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    I think that one other way to enforce discipline may be through the European Union. The EU is originally an economic entity. European countries still buy oil and gas in their own separate ways, while OPEC countries are banded together to determine price. Why not create a single EU purchasing power? That way you get a monopsony versus a cartel. It gives the EU a way better bargaining position to determine price.
    Look I can understand here, why you think that way. And unfortunately it is a correct assumption. And trust me in my eyes that makes you a good person with an optimistic outlook towards life, but it is unfortunately not your choice to make. The real world unfortunately is a lot harsher place.
    It's a possible alternative, the problem is that the EU is such a diverse bunch of countries that we have troubles agreeing on anything. Also I generally dislike increased federalization of the EU, we shouldn't become the United States of Europe.
    But cooperating over some issues like gas/oil might be a good idea. Yeah sadly it's not my choice, on the other hand I'm glad it isn't, it'd probably be harder to have an opinion if you had all that responsibility.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Well I'd say we've been both.


    Again I disagree here. However we will be soft, if not enough actions are taken. Let me take Hungary and Slovakia as an example to point out why I disagree with "soft." Do you know what gerrymandering is?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    I'm currently studying for a Bachelor's degree in chemistry so no I'm not a lawyer :P


    lol I wasn't implying you were a lawyer or international law student (by the way the latter was already already quite obvious to me), but might I be so bold as to ask what subdiscipline is your main interest? ;)

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post



    I was referring to law and justice in general, not international law. Most societies recognize that murder is wrong even if your reason for the killing was because the victim murdered one of your relatives, violence begets violence, it would never end.


    yeah internally they would, externally (i.e. society vs. society) they wouldn't, which is entirely the point here

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    he's still banned from having a political office for the other crimes he was convicted of.

    banned from political office, but not banned from being a diplomat. Do you see what I am hinting at here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    Also I generally dislike increased federalization of the EU, we shouldn't become the United States of Europe.

    I entirely agree with you there, if only because I am a centralist at heart.
    ;)

    Quote Originally Posted by Elldallan View Post
    as long as you follow this basic set of rules we'll trade and interact with you but if you break them we will smite you.

    and that kind of thing cannot be achieved by quoting laws, you can only achieve it by political action.

    Also to get back to the appeasement example of Chamberlain here. What was wrong with it, is the legal aspect of it. Putting political pressure on Hitler through negotiation wasn't the bad thing that Neville did. The fact that he brought home a piece of paper with a legal agreement on it, is what is so rotten about appeasement. A piece of paper entirely worthless, as worthless as quoting laws to tyrants.

    In this situation there are two effective ways of taking political action. It can be unilateral or multilateral. The United States has already made a unilateral move. I think the multilateral way is more effective. It puts far greater pressure on Russia.

    Unilateral is however far simpler, which is why political leaders tend to use it so often. History however does prove that there is an effective political unilateral way to force an end to a conflict. It is called "unconditional surrender". ;) But it is a rather costly way.

    Again I am however optimistic that the Dutch cabinet can find a multilateral way. The Netherlands has experience in this area, perhaps more so than any other country in the world. To give you an example. When the Indonesian tyrant Suharto was in power we've found multilateral ways of dealing with him too.
    Last edited by freemehul; 23-07-2014 at 20:27.
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  6. #21
    Forum Fanatic freemehul's Avatar
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    And about the French ships. I am not that worried about that either.

    In the year 1775 there was this King who asked the Netherlands to send two armies to 13 distant colonies of his on the other side of the Atlantic. By the time the Dutch parliament was done with this King's request, these two contingents were unfit for combat and could only be used as ceremonial guards. Dutch merchants took it another step further and together with the French smuggled weapons and ammonition to these 13 colonies.

    Again no international law was used in these matters. Only once was international law used (the Netherlands were the second to recognise these 13 colonies as an independent nation) and that was when the conflict had already finished.


    If Putin wishes to purchase these ships, by all means let him try to buy himself a Tirpitz worth a king's ransom with the power of a glowworm.
    Last edited by freemehul; 23-07-2014 at 20:28.
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  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    Quite true that these are some things you can expect in a warzone. As for the IFF that may be true, but it is also plausible, that the no IFF choice, is a deliberate choice. Anyhow it's just a theory, albeit a very nasty one. This theory came into my head after watching the former CIA officer on CNN. He made a comment that he had never seen such good quality sound unless it came directly from the phone operator. Can Putin really be this stupid to have his men getting caught that way? I mean we are talking ex-KGB officers. Is Putin really that weak? You see to me that looks very suspicious.
    I thought America was broken?

    how come you base theories on their CIA and News?

    Also if America didn't exist does anyone think Ukraine still would?
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  8. #23
    Forum Fanatic octobrev's Avatar
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    Why is a passenger jet flying over a war zone? Seems a much greater error than shooting down a plane within your war zone...
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  9. #24
    Forum Fanatic freemehul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by goodz View Post
    I thought America was broken?

    how come you base theories on their CIA and News?

    Also if America didn't exist does anyone think Ukraine still would?

    actually goodz, I was thinking there that it may not have been an accident, but deliberate, but that is assuming that this former CIA officer is telling the truth in his story about the sound quality.

    But yeah you can't really trust the CIA, even if it is a former CIA officer.

    ..and goodz, it is just a theory, definitely not a conclusion. ;)

    I would like to point out this though. Why assume Obama is a liar, when the United States also has a victim in this crash?
    Last edited by freemehul; 24-07-2014 at 10:01.
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  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by octobrev View Post
    Why is a passenger jet flying over a war zone? Seems a much greater error than shooting down a plane within your war zone...
    seriously disagree with that. There were plenty of other civilian planes flying over that area and that plane wouldn't have been shot down, if the rebels hadn't been supplied with anti-aircraft missiles. I would also point out that the weather was bad south of the crash site.

    The fault lies first with the supplier of those anti-aircraft missiles, second with the aviation authorities that didn't close off eastern Ukraine completely (as they did close it off below 8KM) and last with the airline.
    Last edited by freemehul; 24-07-2014 at 10:06.
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  11. #26
    Member BasketCase's Avatar
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    Annnnnd going from bad to worse...

    Ukraine's PM resigns amid deadly rebellion complicating MH17 probe
    AP

    Donetsk (Ukraine) (AFP) - Ukraine's prime minister resigned Thursday after his governing coalition collapsed, plunging the former Soviet state into political limbo as it struggles to quell a deadly rebellion in the east.

    The shock announcement added to a already chaotic situation in the rebel-controlled east, where international experts are carrying out a complex investigation into the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 that left 298 dead.

    Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said he was stepping down over "dissolution of the parliamentary coalition and the blocking of government initiatives" after several parties walked out on the ruling group.

    The collapse of the ruling coalition paves the way for early elections to be called by President Petro Poroshenko within 30 days.

    Although a truce has been declared by both rebels and government forces in the immediate vicinity of the vast crash site, heavy shelling was ongoing nearby including around Donetsk, just 60 kilometres (40 miles) from the scene.

    Ukraine's army reported four soldiers killed over the last 24 hours in its offensive to retake the eastern industrial heartland from pro-Russian insurgents.

    Countries which lost 298 citizens in the disaster are looking to deploy armed police to secure the impact zone, with the Dutch drawing up a UN resolution on the proposal and Australia already putting 50 officers on stand-by in London.

    "On the site it is still clear that nothing is happening without the approval of the armed rebels who brought the plane down in the first place," said Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, whose country lost 28 citizens in the crash.

    "There has still not been anything like a thorough professional search of the area where the plane went down, and there can't be while the site is controlled by armed men with vested interest in the outcome of the investigation."

    - 'Rockets from Russia' -

    The Ukrainian military said rockets were on Thursday being fired "from the Russian side," hitting locations close to Lugansk airport and in several areas in the Donetsk region.

    Mortar shells also rained down on Avdiyika in the Donetsk region, the army said, without giving details of casualties.

    An AFP crew heading to one of these combat hotspots Wednesday was turned back by rebels, who fired shots at their car.

    Kiev said two fighter jets that were downed on Wednesday were hit by missiles launched from Russian territory, and that while the pilots ejected safely, there was no information about their whereabouts.

    Meanwhile, the Red Cross warned both sides to abide by the Geneva Conventions, declaring that it considered Ukraine to be in a state of civil war.

    - EU to put more under sanctions -

    The EU, which accuses Russia of fanning the rebellion in Ukraine's east by arming the separatists, will add 15 Ukrainian and Russian individuals and 18 entities to its sanctions list, said a source from the bloc.

    The move came just a week after the EU unveiled a round of toughened embargoes against Moscow, which is widely expected to sink into recession this year.

    In the debate over more sanctions, Britain ruffled feathers in neighbouring France over its push for an EU arms embargo, as Paris is keen to go ahead with its sale of two warships to Russia.

    On Thursday, Poroshenko said he was "very disappointed" at France's insistence on the deal, saying: "It's not a question of money, industry or jobs. It's a question of values."

    US intelligence officials have said they believe the rebels mistakenly shot down the Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with a surface-to-air missile provided by Russia.

    Moscow has denied the charges and Putin has pledged to "do everything" to influence the separatists and ensure a full probe into the crash.

    The first bodies from last Thursday's crash arrived in the Netherlands on Wednesday to a solemn ceremony. Dozens more were flown there on Thursday to undergo an identification process that Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has warned could take months.

    Dutch police have also been visiting bereaved relatives of the victims to retrieve DNA samples from items such as hairbrushes, and obtain details of tattoos and fingerprints, as well as consulting medical and dental records to help with the identification.

  12. #27
    Forum Fanatic freemehul's Avatar
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    this resignation will seriously slow things down. I understand that the resignation is due to two political parties who removed their support for the cabinet. Putin putting pressure on these Ukrainians again?


    What I also find worrying is the plane crash of the Algerian airliner. Apparently it crashed in Mali, also in rebel held territory, these rebels have links with Al Qaida. Anyhow it may have been the weather, it may not have been. We just don't know yet.

    With the other crash in Taiwan, this year doesn't seem to be a good year to fly. So many dead. It's sad.
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  13. #28
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    Russia is firing artillery from long range across the border according to the reports. I also believe that many of the rebel fighters are regular Russian troops with face masks on.

    What's really unbelievable is that arms sales from Germany, France and Italy weren't suspended or at least put under serious review. Trading arms to Russia right now seems, at the very least, counterproductive. The EU signed an economic deal with Urkaine, then goes ahead and sells arms and tech to Russia? The merry-go-round of self destruction if you ask me.

  14. #29
    Forum Fanatic octobrev's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by freemehul View Post
    seriously disagree with that. There were plenty of other civilian planes flying over that area and that plane wouldn't have been shot down, if the rebels hadn't been supplied with anti-aircraft missiles. I would also point out that the weather was bad south of the crash site.

    The fault lies first with the supplier of those anti-aircraft missiles, second with the aviation authorities that didn't close off eastern Ukraine completely (as they did close it off below 8KM) and last with the airline.
    Any good war needs anti-aircraft missiles. I see no fault; only success unaligned with your predispositions.
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    Forum Fanatic freemehul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by octobrev View Post
    Any good war needs anti-aircraft missiles. I see no fault; only success unaligned with your predispositions.
    I would like to point out that Novaja Gazeta has a headline with "Forgive Us" and pagewide picture of the mourners. So even the Russians (at least those not indoctrinated by Putin) disagree with you. ;)
    Last edited by freemehul; 25-07-2014 at 12:28.
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