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Thread: Soldier Desertions

  1. #1
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    Soldier Desertions

    This is something I failed to notice before, but could I confirm that soldiers desert ahead of everyone else ONLY IF there are enough soldiers for only the soldiers to desert?

    Previously I was under the assumption that soldiers would desert first, then the rest would desert proportionally. But having probably been a few soldiers short of deserting for some of the ticks I was chained, I found that I had a good number of soldiers left (whereas in other ticks only soldiers deserted, as desired).

    If I'm not wrong, would this also make it worthwhile to consider throwing a couple of NSes on a chained province that is releasing soldiers, even though it eases overpopulation a bit? (The goal being to make that province 1 soldier short of doing an all-soldier desertion? Is there also a school of thought on releasing thieves vs def specs (I assume that offense is out, and you wouldn't want to release elites)

    If this is the case, does anyone have the link where you are able to make an approximate calculation as to how many soldiers are needed? I've seen it in the forums before but thought I could just wing it (evidently not).

    Thanks in advance!

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    http://wiki.utopia-game.com/index.ph...Overpopulation

    There's the page in the guide/wiki about it. Judging by the history page it's mostly written by Bishop and Scav and I assume isn't much different to what I found. Assuming it's the same, your initial assertion is correct sort of.
    The short is that after peasants leave, the game calc's how many elites should leave. Then it checks if you have that many soldiers home, if you do you lose them instead, otherwise you lose the elites.
    Then it does the same for thieves, again comparing to the number of soldiers now present. Then it does it for def specs, off specs and finally soldiers.
    The key thing is that it does them in order, so you can have elites and thieves losses replaced by soldiers but not specs (or even sometimes def spec losses replaced by soldiers, but not elites/thieves if you have the right amount of each).
    The simple way to do it is to find out how many you need to prevent any leaving and just have that many soldiers.

    As for NS - totally can be worth it, just takes a bit of effort to calc that kind of stuff from their SoM, probably better to NS before the chain too.
    That nerdy guy that obsesses with game mechanics.

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    I've always read that formula wrong in the wiki, thanks for pointing it out! Finally get how it works now. I think it was simplified in my mind as soldiers leave first, then everything else gets counted, rather than the soldiers or troop type comparison.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
    This is something I failed to notice before, but could I confirm that soldiers desert ahead of everyone else ONLY IF there are enough soldiers for only the soldiers to desert?
    Confirm. But maybe add that there are 5 calculations. Or maybe change the words "everyone else" to "a type of unit".

    Soldiers desert ahead of a type of unit ONLY IF there are enough soldiers for only the soldiers to desert. Unit types are Elites, thieves, defense, offense, and soldiers and calculations are in that order.



    Previously I was under the assumption that soldiers would desert first, then the rest would desert proportionally. But having probably been a few soldiers short of deserting for some of the ticks I was chained, I found that I had a good number of soldiers left (whereas in other ticks only soldiers deserted, as desired).

    If I'm not wrong, would this also make it worthwhile to consider throwing a couple of NSes on a chained province that is releasing soldiers, even though it eases overpopulation a bit? (The goal being to make that province 1 soldier short of doing an all-soldier desertion? Is there also a school of thought on releasing thieves vs def specs (I assume that offense is out, and you wouldn't want to release elites)

    If this is the case, does anyone have the link where you are able to make an approximate calculation as to how many soldiers are needed? I've seen it in the forums before but thought I could just wing it (evidently not).

    Thanks in advance!
    First figure out what "Metric" means in the guide. Then look at how to use it. Anytime you are overpopulated you need to calculate the "metric".
    Metric = 0.20* [(Current population-Peasants*0.07)/Max population - 1]
    [(Current population-Peasants*0.07)/Max population - 1] Is the amount you are overpopulated. You can write that as a percentage.

    (Current population-Peasants*0.07) is your population. When the tick happens the peasants leave desertion happens next. I always simplify and use current population. A slight error is fine.
    Simplifies to [(population)/Max population - 1] Which is can also be written
    (pop-maxpop)/maxpop = percent overpop
    Pop-maxpop is the number of units that have to leave in order to not be overpopulated.
    Pop-(maxpop X 1.15) Is the number of units that have to leave in order to not have any desertions.

    The metric is 20% of the %overpop. Or "one fifth of your percent overpopulation".

    Once you have the number for metric the rest is not difficult.

    If you want 0 desertions you can add all units and then multiply total X metric. That is the number of soldiers you need.

    It is a little more complicated if you are releasing something in order to get the soldiers to keep something else. Releasing thieves to save elites just use elites X metric.

    Consider an example where you have metric= 0.1, 3000 defensive specs and 299 soldiers. You will have 300 defensive specs desert. Releasing 1 defensive spec will make that 2999 specs and 300 soldiers so you lose 30 soldiers. Thirty is much less than three hundred.

    Also consider an example where you have metric= 0.1, 3000 defensive specs, 2000 offensive specs, and 299 soldiers. You will have 300 def specs desert and 200 offensive specs desert but you will still have 299 soldiers. That is 500 desertions and none of them are soldiers. If you release 1 defensive spec then you have 2999def, 2000off, 300 soldiers you will have 30 soldiers desert.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pathetic sheep View Post
    Also consider an example where you have metric= 0.1, 3000 defensive specs, 2000 offensive specs, and 299 soldiers. You will have 300 def specs desert and 200 offensive specs desert but you will still have 299 soldiers. That is 500 desertions and none of them are soldiers. If you release 1 defensive spec then you have 2999def, 2000off, 300 soldiers you will have 30 soldiers desert.
    Thanks pathetic sheep! All very clear except this last part... In the first case, would 200 soldiers desert instead of the 200 offensive specs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
    Thanks pathetic sheep! All very clear except this last part... In the first case, would 200 soldiers desert instead of the 200 offensive specs?
    That is the part that confuses most people and is also hard to believe.

    http://wiki.utopia-game.com/index.ph...Overpopulation
    Off Specs Desertions = IF [(OffSpecs home * Metric) > (Solds home - Leet desertions - Thieves Desertions - Def Spec Desertions)] Then (OffSpecs home* Metric) Else 0
    (Solds home - Def Spec Desertions) = 299 soldiers home - 300 deserters= -1.
    (OffSpecs home * Metric) = 200

    200 > -1

    So "If" = true and therefore "then" = true
    (OffSpecs home* Metric) = 2000 X 0.1 = 200. Two hundred offensive specs desert.

    Notice that in the next hour the numbers are different. The 299 soldiers would be enough to cover 2700 def specs. Likewise in the example where you release 1 spec to get 300 soldiers you have to release more before the next tic. The metric changes every hour too.


    I should add the other extreme. If you have no soldiers and everything is home you might lose an equal percentage of everything. If you have a few soldiers your elite/thief loses will save soldiers and cause specs to desert. Later when you are less overpopulated (land comes in + desertions) the small number of soldiers saved will start preventing elite losses. If you have few elites your number of specs will drop until soldiers desert. Because specs and soldiers deserted you are less overpopulated and the metric drops.

    Sending a few soldier to an offline chained province can save a lot of troops. Nightstrikes can do a lot of damage.

    Calculating exact losses can easily confuse (and they might take more land, or nightstrike one minute before tic etc). Probably better to just have enough soldiers to cover several hours of desertion. If your kingdom sends 1000 soldiers it would drive your metric up a little, maybe .12 instead of .1, and you would lose 1300 X 0.12 = 156 soldiers. That is much better than losing 300 defensive specs.
    Last edited by pathetic sheep; 08-06-2015 at 19:24.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pathetic sheep View Post
    Also consider an example where you have metric= 0.1, 3000 defensive specs, 2000 offensive specs, and 299 soldiers. You will have 300 def specs desert and 200 offensive specs desert but you will still have 299 soldiers. That is 500 desertions and none of them are soldiers. If you release 1 defensive spec then you have 2999def, 2000off, 300 soldiers you will have 30 soldiers desert.
    Could you clarify this for me. i.e. we release 1 def spec, so 2999*0.1 = 299.9 deserters > 299 soldiers so I'd have expected specs to desert still. Unless the calculation is FLOOR(2999*0.1) = 299 deserters => 30 soldiers desert. Otherwise you'd need to release 100 def specs before the soldiers deserted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RiffArt View Post
    Could you clarify this for me. i.e. we release 1 def spec, so 2999*0.1 = 299.9 deserters > 299 soldiers so I'd have expected specs to desert still. Unless the calculation is FLOOR(2999*0.1) = 299 deserters => 30 soldiers desert. Otherwise you'd need to release 100 def specs before the soldiers deserted.
    the writeup/formula/data i used to make the wiki on overpop didn't address this. I always rounded to the nearest sold and just went with it...i didnt test the exact edge values because i always like to have a buffer.

    I'd assume its always round up. so if your at 299.9 deserts u need 300 solds to replace. Test it though and i could update it

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    Quote Originally Posted by RiffArt View Post
    Could you clarify this for me. i.e. we release 1 def spec, so 2999*0.1 = 299.9 deserters > 299 soldiers so I'd have expected specs to desert still. Unless the calculation is FLOOR(2999*0.1) = 299 deserters => 30 soldiers desert. Otherwise you'd need to release 100 def specs before the soldiers deserted.
    Start 3000 defensive specs and 299 solders.

    Release 1 spec to soldier. Do not release the soldier.

    Now 2999 defensive specs and 300 soldiers.

    ---------------------------------------------

    It is also unlikely that it will be ever be done with 1 unit. Having something like 4000 specs and 200 soldiers is more likely. In that case 183 defensive specs released will give you total 383 soldiers and 3817 defensive specs. The math is quicker if you ignore the peasant change which always gives you a margin larger than rounding. If you release 200 specs to soldiers and it rounds up you desert 40 soldiers instead of 39 soldiers. Releasing 183 specs and deserting 39 soldiers hurts but it is much cheaper than deserting 400 specs and the left over soldiers can protect your elites and thieves.

    Sending specs to the dragon to drop population and/or having kingdom mates send a soldier ball might be better than releasing if those are options.
    Last edited by pathetic sheep; 09-06-2015 at 07:19.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pathetic sheep View Post
    Release 1 spec to soldier. Do not release the soldier.
    Duh! Thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pathetic sheep View Post
    That is the part that confuses most people and is also hard to believe.

    http://wiki.utopia-game.com/index.ph...Overpopulation


    (Solds home - Def Spec Desertions) = 299 soldiers home - 300 deserters= -1.
    (OffSpecs home * Metric) = 200

    200 > -1

    So "If" = true and therefore "then" = true
    (OffSpecs home* Metric) = 2000 X 0.1 = 200. Two hundred offensive specs desert.

    Notice that in the next hour the numbers are different. The 299 soldiers would be enough to cover 2700 def specs. Likewise in the example where you release 1 spec to get 300 soldiers you have to release more before the next tic. The metric changes every hour too.


    I should add the other extreme. If you have no soldiers and everything is home you might lose an equal percentage of everything. If you have a few soldiers your elite/thief loses will save soldiers and cause specs to desert. Later when you are less overpopulated (land comes in + desertions) the small number of soldiers saved will start preventing elite losses. If you have few elites your number of specs will drop until soldiers desert. Because specs and soldiers deserted you are less overpopulated and the metric drops.

    Sending a few soldier to an offline chained province can save a lot of troops. Nightstrikes can do a lot of damage.

    Calculating exact losses can easily confuse (and they might take more land, or nightstrike one minute before tic etc). Probably better to just have enough soldiers to cover several hours of desertion. If your kingdom sends 1000 soldiers it would drive your metric up a little, maybe .12 instead of .1, and you would lose 1300 X 0.12 = 156 soldiers. That is much better than losing 300 defensive specs.
    Thanks for that clarification as well. I think that part of my problem is that it's not an instinctive calculation

    So, just to clarify

    - If you do not have enough soldiers to counter Elite desertions, thus necessitating Elite desertions, then for subsequent calculations, [Soldiers home - Elite desertions] is necessarily negative. This means that if elites desert, every other troop type says balls to this and deserts as well, even if there were enough soldiers home to cover that troop type.

    Thus,

    (1) If Elites desert, everyone else deserts too regardless of soldiers left behind
    (2) If Thieves desert, Specs must necessarily desert

    So on and so forth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
    - If you do not have enough soldiers to counter Elite desertions, thus necessitating Elite desertions, then for subsequent calculations, [Soldiers home - Elite desertions] is necessarily negative. This means that if elites desert, every other troop type says balls to this and deserts as well, even if there were enough soldiers home to cover that troop type.

    Thus,

    (1) If Elites desert, everyone else deserts too regardless of soldiers left behind
    (2) If Thieves desert, Specs must necessarily desert

    So on and so forth.
    That wasn't tested though. its POSSIBLE your leets could desert and then solds could cover spec/thief desertions. If someone tests it i could update the formula

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    Quote Originally Posted by Persain View Post
    That wasn't tested though. its POSSIBLE your leets could desert and then solds could cover spec/thief desertions. If someone tests it i could update the formula
    The developers could also change any of the mechanics.

    If wiki is wrong then I do not know. I have never tried leaving a bunch of elites. Also I only get chained once every few weeks.

    Palem might be able to test that. TFC will have attackers with elite defense.

    Another question we could test is "when does draft occur". If you run emergency draft with patriotism do the drafted soldiers desert in the same tic?

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    Quote Originally Posted by pathetic sheep View Post
    The developers could also change any of the mechanics.

    If wiki is wrong then I do not know. I have never tried leaving a bunch of elites. Also I only get chained once every few weeks.

    Palem might be able to test that. TFC will have attackers with elite defense.

    Another question we could test is "when does draft occur". If you run emergency draft with patriotism do the drafted soldiers desert in the same tic?
    I don't think soldiers are drafted when you are overpopulated (but I could be wrong). When i was sitting someone in EOWCF and aiding soldiers to artificially "overpop", I miscalculated and lost a tick of drafting.

    Btw, Persain - thanks for coming up with the formulas, that must have taken a lot of work!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
    I don't think soldiers are drafted when you are overpopulated (but I could be wrong). When i was sitting someone in EOWCF and aiding soldiers to artificially "overpop", I miscalculated and lost a tick of drafting.

    Btw, Persain - thanks for coming up with the formulas, that must have taken a lot of work!
    lol, someone asked for the math in the forums and offered 40 credits....so i got paid for that formula ;)

    As for drafting solds, you draft when overpoped, and draft is the last thing done...ie after peasents leave and desertions

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