Primary Election Clowncar

[Palem]

Bit peeved by CNN's continual reminders about the white vote, while forgetting the Clintons' obvious advantage in the south.

Clinton's southern advantage after the primaries is irrelevant. Those states are voting Republican, even if it's Hilary vs Trump. That's why it's not being discussed. As far as CNN is concerned, Hillary won the primaries in April of last year, when she declared that she was running for presidency.

[noobium]

I know that, I'm saying CNN is pushing this "white guys for Bernie, black guys for Hillary" thing as if it were an axiomatic truth, under which is an implication that all this socialism talk is stuff white people like because white people are out of touch. At least that's how it comes off to me; I mean, I get that Hillary's support with blacks is a real thing for real and understandable reasons, but it's about CNN and the media in general and how they've framed it. It's not just partisanship for Clinton, it's feeding into the notion that black people only care about black issues that still resonates today.

I'm just glad they stopped saying "Telling It Like It Is" as a codeword for conservative racism / assholery, though I guess that's because the Trumpening is upon us.
There is no way the GOP can run anyone but Trump, contested convention or no; that's the beauty of this. Even more hilarious is that wizard Cruz has positioned himself to be the GOP's preferred candidate, and if they do reject Trump, a significant fraction of the GOP are done for good. There's no sense among those people that voting R is necessary for the greater good, unlike Bernie who will absolutely refuse to be a Nader.

[noobium]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...one-of-sanders

So, uh... if you attack Goldman Sachs, you're attacking Hillary? Is that what this is about? Way to stick your foot in your mouth guys.

Also I'm reading about voter de-registration and ****ery in NY as well.

[makeo]

Strident Harpy Hilary Clinton reluctantly agrees to engage in bilateral talks with weak socialist Bernard Sanders over the future of Brooklyn province . = )

Or sumfin' like that.

[makeo]

Ethics scholar Donald Trump today noted that should abortion become illegal, women who have abortions should be liable to criminal prosecution.

He since was forced to retract this statement as only the doctor would commit a crime should abortion become illegal clearly.

Or sumfin ' similar. = (

Some of the strangest **** I've ever heard. Either it's legal or it's illegal. And if it is illegal then the woman who chooses to do so is committing a crime.

Personally, I'm massively pro abortion up to 22 weeks. After that illegal. Because that's when babies can survive with strong medical help.

Between 20-22 weeks is the grey area for me as medical advances may make it possible and I think a woman should be able to choose in that area.

[makeo]

Tomorrow on Fox News Ethics , we discuss the Republican candidates position on whether trans women can piss in the ladies toilet or if cis feminist lesbians are right to insist that biologically they are male and it represents the patriarchal hegemony to allow it.

[noobium]

Until someone can start talking about anti-eugenics and build a political platform seriously opposed to it, there really is no point in arguing over details. Either life matters or it doesn't.
The only way I can reconcile eugenics policies with the law is to reject the notion that anyone has a right to life at all, and that is against everything the US was supposedly founded upon. Most people aren't willing to take that step but necessarily engage in doublethink - the pro-choice position has nothing to do with choice and everything to do with legitimizing eugenics.

Anyhoo...
Trump is an ass but his ability to wreck the GOP's face is brilliant. Let's dispense with the notion that Donald Trump doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing, and he's running this election like a train. I still don't get why anyone takes a word he says at face value, because it's so obviously bull****.

Also:
Yay Hillary and Bernie gonna throw down New York style.

[Palem]

Some of the strangest **** I've ever heard. Either it's legal or it's illegal.

You're thinking too much. Trump is preaching to the dumbest demographic. They believe what they believe because that's what they believe. Not because they've considered the options and weighed the pros and cons and really gave serious thought and consideration into the topics. Every second of Trump's campaign is dedicated to earning their vote. He's currently trying to earn the vote of people who think abortion is bad, so he's going to do what he does best and vilify someone to support his cause.
(Not saying anything about pro-life or pro-choice, just stupidity)

[makeo]

I am aware it is a sales job. =]

There again, I'm also aware the tipping point isn't quite what the GOP intended . =]

Because....Ho hum...all of what the GOP does now to push Cruz and broker Trump along with making Cruz the nominaton can be easily worked to the Dems advantage.


Or is there a way a candidate like Cruz who is an theological one can cross over to voters having ripped the nomination?

Maybe if Clinton gets a recommendation to be prosecuted?

Can't see it.


Anything other than that Clinton needs Bernie to smack the living heck out of her across all the N.E in a way not seen before. Like do it now . 60% of the vote total change.

[makeo]

Which as it's closed Dem primaries, and not largely available to independents or younger people, I don't see happening.

Open primaries or longer between races closes that.

[makeo]

Shalt see. I'm coming up Clinton vs contested at the moment now though.

I genuinely suspect Cruz may take that. In a weird one.

[noobium]

Come on Bernie, win Wisconsin by 20 points or better. I got a longshot play money bet on it.

[makeo]

Not quite happening. = )

Still , a strong win:

My shaky math has it as .

Needed for majority: 2026
Clinton on: 1302
Sanders on: 1088
Remaining available: 1661

Clinton needs: 724/1661 = 43.59%
Sanders needs: 938/1661 = 56.47%

For a purely "pledged" win. This ignores superdelegates as I suspect they will flip if enough popular vote reason given.

A very slight move to Clinton in terms of vote/time to Sanders to change it around.

(Sanders gaining but not quite quick enough)

Wyoming should move towards Sanders(10-4 Sanders) but Sanders only keeps pace enough to provide him a narrative (against the inherent msm, "centrist" and superdelegate design bias).

I think genuine Sanders momentum exists but he needs to crack the hardest part of the Clinton vote and appeal to them to win the nomination.

That's urban, sometimes disadvantaged, minorities and older conservative Democrats especially women. I see small trends on this ( the AA vote in 30-44 and higher education moving towards him, Women 45-60 moving towards him) but is it quickly enough that his message spreads?

On the Repubs, they've gone all in on Cruz. I suspect it will be contested and he will emerge with it.

And will get spanked at the general but maintain enough Senate votes to be close to 50-50 ( current 54-46) and keep the house.

All speculation /analysis of course.

I do genuinely think Trump saying women who have abortions should be prosecuted if it's made illegal has made him less electable along with that being aligned with backing his campaign manager .

Moving forward: Bernie needs to try to appeal to urban minorities and older more conservative Dems.(I'm not sure he can. He's pretty inflexible )

Hilary should try to outline how real life isn't as theoretical as school and every inch won matters.
(I think she can. She's err...highly "flexible " in her opinions. Especially if the focus group indicates votes there.)
=]

[makeo]

Nutshelled: Good win Bernie. He needs to reach a tipping point on hard to reach Women over 50 and Urban minority voters to perform this , frankly amazing, display of democracy.
Clinton: Still massively the favourite. Needs to cross over and inject hope into younger voters while remaining realistic.
Trump: Boned. Unlikely to win on first nomination now. And hence won't win
Cruz: I hope this theocratic sicko loses. If they ever are going to win now is their shot though.

[noobium]

I think I converted my mom to Bernieism, but too late for the primary thingy.

It's pretty tough to sell hope and faith in the government sector to the older generation. See enough bull**** and it's a lot easier to buy into Hillary's FUD about Bernie's plan. (To be fair I believe his plan is unrealistic, but I also think it is based on some misguided principles like giving a blank check to public colleges; unfortunately me being an uneducated lout, my thinking counts for nothing.)

The one thing Bernie is dead right about is nationalizing health care, because this privatized system which tries to be fair is never going to work. Just handing everyone insurance isn't going to solve the problem overnight, because lack of access and resources will remain a problem. I think it's not going to go over as well as some people believe, but the alternative is keeping up this broken-ass system until it collapses - which will likely happen real soon - and everyone is resigned to no medical care whatsoever, just like a lot of people have been.

I still think the GOP is truly done this year. They might retain enough seats but in every election cycle, the young progressive types will be mobilized more and the Trumpists / Religious Right realize more and more that their party couldn't give less of a **** about them.