Data Request: Scientists per Province in Kingdom

[Andurilas]

I was thinking about the "fairness" argument in the other thread--essentially, that it is an unfair advantage if one province has 10 new scientists and another has 0. This would be more persuasive if this were a 1v1 game. But what we really want to know is whether kingdoms are getting an unfair distribution.

So if you have access to the data, would you please post at minimum how many total scientists your kingdom has, the number of provinces in your kingdom, and be a gem and do the division for us? Maybe the date, too, in case one of the data nerds wants to plot something.

E.g.,

May 7 YR2: 666 Scientists (ooooh spooky), 23 provinces, 28.96 per province [Note: we have 25 provs but I only have info on 23]

[Conclave]

this wont give a fair representation unfortunately, it doesn't account for any losses or gains from abduct, and might be hard to get that info depending on your kindgom(mates). Can also be skewed by labs or revelation.

[CannaWhoopazz]

Total: 671 | Average: 26.8

25 prov's. ~120hrs in Fort

[Bo To]

Total 530. 25 provs. Average 21.2.

168 hours in fort.

[HerpNDerp]

I only have stats for 22 of the 25 provs in my kd.

606 total scientists, 27.54 avg, high of 36, low of 24.

I think ~36-40 hours in fort. I don't think anyone in the kd has had a succesful abduct attack yet this age, so all are spawns.

[Andurilas]

this wont give a fair representation unfortunately, it doesn't account for any losses or gains from abduct, and might be hard to get that info depending on your kindgom(mates). Can also be skewed by labs or revelation.

Hours in fort is important, so thanks for that suggestion. Labs and abduct opportunities (but not occurrences) are consistent across kingdoms. If we wanted to be a little more accurate, we could ask for number of Humans or Faeries and assume a certain Revelate utilization, but I think we can probably write that off as statistical noise. Or we can refine the data once we have some basics.

As for the difficulty of getting the info--most kingdoms run some kind of intel bot or site, which should allow them to get the information easily.

[Ghostfinger]

694 scientists, 25 provinces (5 with Relevate), Avg. 30.2

55 hours of fort

[s0830887]

22 provs, 601 scientists, 96 hrs fort total. No gains or losses on abduct, no provinces with revelation.

Top - 36
Bottom - 19
Median - 27
Mean - 27.3

[Andurilas]

Total 530. 25 provs. Average 21.2.

168 hours in fort.

This is exceptionally low. Are you sure this is for all 25 provs?

[Andurilas]

I've started putting the data here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Bo To]

This is exceptionally low. Are you sure this is for all 25 provs?

Sorry I didn't notice some of the intel is old or inaccurate. Don't count what I gave you.

[neanderthal]

May 10, Utopia Time

20 provinces responded
24 lowest number of scientists
35 highest number of scientists
549 total scientists
27.45 average

We also have a province that joined us late by about a week (Feb 22, yr 1). It started with the 18 scientists and has not grown any more yet and has not been in fort for any time. This province is NOT included in the above totals.

Some have received scientists in war and eowcf.

72 hours in fort in total

No successful abducts since oop and then the re-balancing done by the game masters.


Personally, the last scientist I received was on April 24 of YR1 - no fort since that time. Thats 7 days and 10 hours.

[s0830887]

I'm still on 21 :'( 96 hrs fort only

[Chanain]

I'm not sure I accept the premise that the fairness issue is abrogated by the 'team' nature of the game, nor is it necessarily the case that 'overall' scientists would offset the disadvantage, depending on distribution.

But there are easier ways of figuring it out than with a data set that is likely to be skewed - particularly given the impossibility of accounting for all the various different factors in play (Fortified stance, Labs, etc.). If we assume a 2.5% probability per tick, and 25 Kingdoms per Province, then the *average* spawns in a given week will be 105. About 2.4% of Kingdoms, under those conditions, will get 85 or under in a given week. On the flip side, about 3% of Kingdoms will get 125+ in the same period. Stretch it out to two weeks, and the likely range is going to be more in the ballpark of 180ish to 240ish.

[Andurilas]

If the distribution mechanism and the law of averages shakes out such that each kingdom is getting a number of scientists within a certain tolerable range, then the mobbing about "unfairness" loses a lot of its force. What is the probability that Kingdom A is in the 2.4% of kingdoms that get 85 two weeks in a row? Or to ask it a different way, in your last example, "stretch it out to two weeks"--the longer we stretch it out, the less the overall variance will be.