One thing I feel this type of calc does not necessarily properly portray, if you're looking at analyzing tact vs no tact, is that it's not just about dmg done to you, as much as it's also dmg taken by your offender. Imo the 25% auto-fail for CS leads to way more dmg to enemy thieves working you up. This might not be that relevant if you're NSing with 10% tpa, but it sure does add up when you're trying to full-thief steal horses/prop/aw...
Just my 2 cents on this.
PS: nice use of wolfram right there :)