Probability of Getting a New Scientist Each Tick?

[Wilmington]

Bishop already said you will need to rotate build or abduct to reach maximum. Or be Human or Faery I assume

[seanolifter]

What are the chances of Not receiving a new scientist by now? I must be one of the lucky few

[Bo To]

You are not alone :).

[Bishop]

No scientists for me either.

[pathetic sheep]

What are the chances of Not receiving a new scientist by now? I must be one of the lucky few

5 ticks. Assume the bad assumption 0.035.

(1-0.035) = 0.965

0*.965^5 = 0.837

83.7% have nothing.

[MyNameIsMatija]

5 ticks. Assume the bad assumption 0.035.

(1-0.035) = 0.965

0*.965^5 = 0.837

83.7% have nothing.

It ticked in protection as well.

[drkzeraga]

Using:
- Number of players: 3600
- Number of ticks: 48
- Spawn chance: 3.5%

Result:
- Mean: 2.114
- Median: 2
- Standard Deviation: 1.41
- 5th Percentile: 0
- 95th Percentile: 5

My question is:
Should there really be such a big gap between the top and bottom, especially at the start of the age?
And yes I'm jelly cause I'm one of those that have gotten ZERO scientist since the age started :(

[MyNameIsMatija]

For fun I've done some distribution calculations after a week of ticks (168 ticks of non-fort time with assumed 3.5% probability).

Here are the mentioned probabilities:

SPAWNED 0 => CHANCE 0.25%
SPAWNED 1 => CHANCE 1.53%
SPAWNED 2 => CHANCE 4.64%
SPAWNED 3 => CHANCE 9.32%
SPAWNED 4 => CHANCE 13.93%
SPAWNED 5 => CHANCE 16.58%
SPAWNED 6 => CHANCE 16.34%
SPAWNED 7 => CHANCE 13.71%
SPAWNED 8 => CHANCE 10%
SPAWNED 9 => CHANCE 6.45%
SPAWNED 10 => CHANCE 3.72%
SPAWNED 11 => CHANCE 1.94%
SPAWNED 12 => CHANCE 0.92%
...


Formula used: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIzC1-9PwQo
Sample in Wolfram to play around with yourself: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?....035)%5E(168-0) - just replace the "0s" with the number of scientists you want and "168s" with the number of ticks, it will return the chance of having that many successes after that many tries (scientists after ticks).

[Persain]

For fun I've done some distribution calculations after a week of ticks (168 ticks of non-fort time with assumed 3.5% probability).

its gota be lower than 3.5% i've seen alot lower values than on average 5. heck one provs with 25% labs since asap still has 0, cant be that unlucky.

[MyNameIsMatija]

its gota be lower than 3.5% i've seen alot lower values than on average 5. heck one provs with 25% labs since asap still has 0, cant be that unlucky.

It has hardly been a week yet. Play around with the formula with correct data. Having 0 so far is also not impossible, just unlucky.

[Andurilas]

And how will laboratories effect this?

If it's a 3.5% chance per tick, if you have 20% laboratories giving you a 25% increase in likelihood of attracting a new scientist, does that mean you now have a 4.375% chance? Let's say you leave those laboratories up for 100 hours, which, okay, maybe. That's 3.5 scientists without labs and 4.4 with them.

This . . . this can't be right.

[Bishop]

If the average prov ends with 80 scientists then running labs all age would give you 95. Thats fairly significant when they are professors.

[Paradise]

Surprisingly, those who login less in our kingdom get more scientists than those who do more frequently :/ . A coincidence?

[gpimento]

The formula is simple: get a coin, trow it 100 times, if the coin land at least 3 times no heads neither tails and the crow screamed never more 3 times then maybe you get a new scientist. I got only one so far so for me its 1/118 (with 20% labs)

[Robertz]

Log entry: 14th of August. Been 5 full days. No sign of a new scientist anywhere. Starting to despair.

(posting for one of my KDmates who has yet to see a scientist spawn)