I completely agree with you there, but civil war is the one thing I don't see happening. The factors necessary for civil war to start just aren't present today.Quote:
i think that bad things are ahead for usa - no matter who wins
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I completely agree with you there, but civil war is the one thing I don't see happening. The factors necessary for civil war to start just aren't present today.Quote:
i think that bad things are ahead for usa - no matter who wins
if you are thinking state against state like the last one - you are right
but have you considered just plain anarchy? left vs right?
very hateful and cruel things are being said and done this election - unlike any other in recent history!
Who is being hateful and cruel?
the general population for one - my cousin called me upset yesterday because a friend of hers for over 10 years has suddenly started bashing her and calling her names because she is not supporting obama
not to mention the signs that are posted all over the place bashing not only the candidates but the people who support them - or wont support them
and then you have the stuff like the guys in california hanging an effigy of palin on a noose...
Ah, so it's the pro-Obama crowd who's being hateful and cruel?
...and the guys in Kentucky hanging an effigy of Obama.
Sure there could be some local violence or something, but there won't be a civil war of any kind, that just doesn't happen in countries that are as stabilized as the US.
yeah the hatred is a two way street -
i hope you are right kain - but i do think it will get really ugly when the election is over - no matter who wins - and i wont be at all surprised if things escalate out of control
So because people will be violent, we shouldn't elect the black guy. Got it.
Nothing will happen.. people are to lazy to revolt. If they werent they wouldve revolted long time ago.
The more extreme parts of the political spectrum in the US are very hateful and cruel to each other. The politics of scandal and destruction in Washington is an example of this. But, I feel that I can speak for most US citizens in that we just tune those people out. We want government to solve our problems that we can not solve ourselves either individually or through other organizations. This means working together. Those that can not do that are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Maybe it's because they're already revolting.
and it is not just the U.S. that is going to suffer and see bad things happening
If this crisis doesn't get solved soon, it will get worse for sure. Most economists already predict a recession anyway. I think it may get worse than that.
The last time when i was in the U.S. (which was in summer 2002), we were driving through chicago(land). I saw a massive housing boom there. Huge houses and in massive amounts. I knew then that a crisis was coming for the U.S., i just couldn't predict when the bubble would burst. You might wonder how can you tell? Well the knowledge i have of the U.S. demographics and immigration policy tells me that the housing boom then, isn't normal. The divorce rate isn't that high and the population growth (from both immigration and births) also isn't high enough to attribute such a housing boom. So I knew things were wrong, but the only thing you can't tell is the time aspect. Well the bubble burst this year.
to solve it you need to do a couple of things.
First restore stability, that means government should intervene and take over the banks that are too big to let them fail.
Second restore trust, that means real transparancy, show the raw figures, not just the aggregated values. Also impose selective regulation to deal with the stupid and overtly risky greed.
Third lower taxes so that investment can recommence as that is the ultimate way to restore trust.
Trouble is that neither side is exactly giving the U.S. what it needs, McCain doesn't regulate enough. Obama regulates too much and raises taxes.
In the worst case it will mean that stagflation will increase (which i think is likely to happen, because the price of oil will get high again next summer and because of the high taxes Obama tends to impose and since it is likely Obama wins the election you can bet that will happen too). When that happens you will slump from a recession into a depression, because you can't restore trust properly. That will mean massive lay-offs and a worsening of the U.S. economy. That in turns means that Europe and Asia will also do bad. Europe because it can't invest into the U.S. no more and Asia because it can no longer sell the goods it wants to sell.
If the economic triade does bad, then so will the rest of the world. When that happens you can expect demagogues to appear in countries that aren't democratic, or which are young or fragile democracies.
The cards for that are already in place. Ahmejinedad although not in power today, can get it back. He has the connections with the Sharia police and the military intelligence that the clerics do not have. How do you know, well look at the bombs going off in Iraq in 2006, lots of the stuff was provided by Iran. Since he lives in the poorer streches of the city, he does well with the city poor. The man is manipulative and unscrupulous enough to get what he wants, which is one thing: power! Syria has no incentive to work with the U.S. and Europe so any negotations there are bound to fail, in fact they stand only to benefit from working with Iran rather than the west. The Sudanese government is practicing genocide on its own people. Libya nowadays isn't working against Europe, but Khaddafi is an opportunist. That means that only country standing in the way is Egypt. However Egypt already suffers from the high food prices and riots have already occured in the past, plus the islamist extremists there are politically strong and get increasing support. Pakistan has strife between a moderate and democratic powerbloc versus a rightwing military elite versus islamists extremists. Take away the middle bloc like has happened and you get two groups that will eventually fight eachother for power, one of which (the moderate one) is in a politically weak position, because of U.S. interference (which will only increase with Obama in office) and the trouble it has with India over Kashmir. Pull out of Iraq too early and the fragile stability there will also cease to be. Plus the south will get under the influence of Iran, which is even worse. The Kurds don't like Turkey, which just happens to be the only NATO ally in the region. OK then you might say then you shouldn't done the war in Iraq. Ok lets suppose you did that. Then Iraq would still be under Saddam, since he has no WMD (he already used them and has no more), then he'll have no hope of fighting countries like Iran and those two did war in the past. Also you can't resuplly Saddam like has happened with the last war between the two countries, because that would be political suicide, as remember he already invaded Kuwait. Lose the buffer that is Iraq in the region and Saudi Arabia will border not just one, but two evil regimes. Suppose one of the demagogues wants to war, which you can virtually count on, think of how you are going fight there in the first place. You have no ally in the region who wants to fight with you, nor do you have the resources necessary to do it with. That can only amount to one thing: trench warfare and that's the last thing you want. OK then you might wonder, why do anything at all? Not doing nything will mean those demagogues will not get opposed, that means they will stop at nothing. That means they will hurt Europe and eventually also the U.S. Sudan is getting aid from China so that means they are going to play a waiting game like the Soviet Union did in WW2. Combine that with the fact that Putin in doing what he is doing only acts to his self-interest and thus jams anything you want to do to improve the situation and you know you'll be in a very weak strategic position.
Its like what Pershing said at the end of WW1, why fight again.
So what can you do about it?
Well very little. However the best way to do anything is to take the approach Roosevelt took.
step 1 make public works to restore trust and confidence (not ideal in a recession considering the demographics, but in a depression it is a whole different matter)
(Obama wants health care, but think about it who are the prime takers of healthcare, they are elderly people) McCain wants to cut spending. That's not ideal either, but remember Roosevelts inauguration and compare it to what McCain said in the debate with Obama, there is pretty good similarity).
step 2 prepare an arsenal for the inevitable (don't do it too early, because then you end up as Italy, don't do it too late, because then you end up as England, do it the right time, like Germany)
step 3 take diplomatic action
Obama wants to talk without preconditions regardless of where they stand
McCain doesn't want to do what Obama is doing.
What you should do of course is talk to the neutral countries, if you can get them so far as to not aid the bad guys then you will have gained ground. You should also talk with your friends and allies, at least there you will gain support. However to talk with your enemies has no benefit at all, it is not going to convince them to quit anyway as they have nothing to gain from quitting and everything to gain from war. Now granted Obama is more charismatic, but his weakness is he is talking to the wrong people at the wrong time. He thinks he can solve it like he did in Chicago, but the world isn't Chicago.
Does that stop the inevitable? No, but McCain can at least controll the damage, Obama on the other hand can only maker it worse.
and that is ultimately because of 2 very important reasons. 1 he raises taxes and 2 he is isolationist
so war I see happening, but not civil war
history is a like a pokergame
same deck of cards just dealth differently
9/11 is your Frans Ferdinand
Iraq and Afghanistan is your WW1
the credit crisis is your 1929 crisis
odds say you are going to get the WW2 card too
that means you're going to end up as Britain after WW2, namely
broke and no longer the dominant power in the world
so who is going to be the next dominant power
I really hope it isn't going to be China
McCain is a better dealer than Obama in that respect
but one thing I don't see happening is civil war, that would be a card left to whoever is going to be the next Spain
freemehul
talking with your enemies have done plenty good, at least compared to not talking to them.
How fortunate for leaders, that the masses do not think." - Hitler
Come on if you think they are any different Obama and Mccain
you need to Get Real.
duopolies goverments are designed so the Ultra rich oligarthy has less to do in controlling both parties.
Your gettin same spagetti different label
They both smell the same, they both look the same, they both feel the same and its what my dog leaves out on your front lawn
Two things diebold cs&s run the eltronic voting machines thats rigged for starters.
Under the patriot Act (yuk) if their is civil disturbance or unrest Bush can take Executive powers and run the country just as Hitler did.
why look to people to fix the problem they deliberately created.
USA needs another Franklin D Rosevelt
Someone who is a real Patriot