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Tomorrow on Fox News Ethics , we discuss the Republican candidates position on whether trans women can piss in the ladies toilet or if cis feminist lesbians are right to insist that biologically they are male and it represents the patriarchal hegemony to allow it.
Until someone can start talking about anti-eugenics and build a political platform seriously opposed to it, there really is no point in arguing over details. Either life matters or it doesn't.
The only way I can reconcile eugenics policies with the law is to reject the notion that anyone has a right to life at all, and that is against everything the US was supposedly founded upon. Most people aren't willing to take that step but necessarily engage in doublethink - the pro-choice position has nothing to do with choice and everything to do with legitimizing eugenics.
Anyhoo...
Trump is an ass but his ability to wreck the GOP's face is brilliant. Let's dispense with the notion that Donald Trump doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing, and he's running this election like a train. I still don't get why anyone takes a word he says at face value, because it's so obviously bull****.
Also:
Yay Hillary and Bernie gonna throw down New York style.
You're thinking too much. Trump is preaching to the dumbest demographic. They believe what they believe because that's what they believe. Not because they've considered the options and weighed the pros and cons and really gave serious thought and consideration into the topics. Every second of Trump's campaign is dedicated to earning their vote. He's currently trying to earn the vote of people who think abortion is bad, so he's going to do what he does best and vilify someone to support his cause.Quote:
Originally Posted by makeo
(Not saying anything about pro-life or pro-choice, just stupidity)
I am aware it is a sales job. =]
There again, I'm also aware the tipping point isn't quite what the GOP intended . =]
Because....Ho hum...all of what the GOP does now to push Cruz and broker Trump along with making Cruz the nominaton can be easily worked to the Dems advantage.
Or is there a way a candidate like Cruz who is an theological one can cross over to voters having ripped the nomination?
Maybe if Clinton gets a recommendation to be prosecuted?
Can't see it.
Anything other than that Clinton needs Bernie to smack the living heck out of her across all the N.E in a way not seen before. Like do it now . 60% of the vote total change.
Which as it's closed Dem primaries, and not largely available to independents or younger people, I don't see happening.
Open primaries or longer between races closes that.
Shalt see. I'm coming up Clinton vs contested at the moment now though.
I genuinely suspect Cruz may take that. In a weird one.
Come on Bernie, win Wisconsin by 20 points or better. I got a longshot play money bet on it.
Not quite happening. = )
Still , a strong win:
My shaky math has it as .
Needed for majority: 2026
Clinton on: 1302
Sanders on: 1088
Remaining available: 1661
Clinton needs: 724/1661 = 43.59%
Sanders needs: 938/1661 = 56.47%
For a purely "pledged" win. This ignores superdelegates as I suspect they will flip if enough popular vote reason given.
A very slight move to Clinton in terms of vote/time to Sanders to change it around.
(Sanders gaining but not quite quick enough)
Wyoming should move towards Sanders(10-4 Sanders) but Sanders only keeps pace enough to provide him a narrative (against the inherent msm, "centrist" and superdelegate design bias).
I think genuine Sanders momentum exists but he needs to crack the hardest part of the Clinton vote and appeal to them to win the nomination.
That's urban, sometimes disadvantaged, minorities and older conservative Democrats especially women. I see small trends on this ( the AA vote in 30-44 and higher education moving towards him, Women 45-60 moving towards him) but is it quickly enough that his message spreads?
On the Repubs, they've gone all in on Cruz. I suspect it will be contested and he will emerge with it.
And will get spanked at the general but maintain enough Senate votes to be close to 50-50 ( current 54-46) and keep the house.
All speculation /analysis of course.
I do genuinely think Trump saying women who have abortions should be prosecuted if it's made illegal has made him less electable along with that being aligned with backing his campaign manager .
Moving forward: Bernie needs to try to appeal to urban minorities and older more conservative Dems.(I'm not sure he can. He's pretty inflexible )
Hilary should try to outline how real life isn't as theoretical as school and every inch won matters.
(I think she can. She's err...highly "flexible " in her opinions. Especially if the focus group indicates votes there.)
=]
Nutshelled: Good win Bernie. He needs to reach a tipping point on hard to reach Women over 50 and Urban minority voters to perform this , frankly amazing, display of democracy.
Clinton: Still massively the favourite. Needs to cross over and inject hope into younger voters while remaining realistic.
Trump: Boned. Unlikely to win on first nomination now. And hence won't win
Cruz: I hope this theocratic sicko loses. If they ever are going to win now is their shot though.
I think I converted my mom to Bernieism, but too late for the primary thingy.
It's pretty tough to sell hope and faith in the government sector to the older generation. See enough bull**** and it's a lot easier to buy into Hillary's FUD about Bernie's plan. (To be fair I believe his plan is unrealistic, but I also think it is based on some misguided principles like giving a blank check to public colleges; unfortunately me being an uneducated lout, my thinking counts for nothing.)
The one thing Bernie is dead right about is nationalizing health care, because this privatized system which tries to be fair is never going to work. Just handing everyone insurance isn't going to solve the problem overnight, because lack of access and resources will remain a problem. I think it's not going to go over as well as some people believe, but the alternative is keeping up this broken-ass system until it collapses - which will likely happen real soon - and everyone is resigned to no medical care whatsoever, just like a lot of people have been.
I still think the GOP is truly done this year. They might retain enough seats but in every election cycle, the young progressive types will be mobilized more and the Trumpists / Religious Right realize more and more that their party couldn't give less of a **** about them.
Single payer or universal health care, no matter what you call it, is to me the second most important thing after opportunity that a government can give.
And sh*t if the Scandanavians can do it, the US sure as sh*t can look after the vulnerable.
That said. I don't view the GOP as truly boned yet. I do think Cruz will take a contested, lose but not be destroyed.
They have an active base . Enough to fill state legislative positions and gubernatorial positions and be 1/3+ of the Repubs. That's a strong voice still.
Dems need to get a message that is active outside of presidential cycle.
That also said. The US tax payer hates being taxed even if it helps them. Because of priciple or something. I dunno.
Post colonial bull****?
Being the land of the free means some principle where the majority accepts being shat on if they have the opportunity and right to **** on others at some stage?
Still, if socialist insurgent Bernard Sanders occupies Brooklyn province in his quest to become Grand Warlord who knows? :)
I hear my boy Donnie is losing, tsk tsk, I'm disappointed in you Murica.
Trump will hit 1237. This is the same RNC that is so hurting for political talent, their golden boy was Marco ****ing Rubio.
If by some chance Trump won't hit 1237, the GOP's only choice is Trump. Whatever they think of him, he is their only shot at winning this year.
This terrible #StopTrump performance is just a way to build up Donald's anti-establishment cred, so when Donald "overcomes the establishment", enough dumbasses will actually believe it.
Ummm....no.
It is unlikely Trump will hit 1237.
And the grass root tea party/conservatives really do hate him.
Now is there a greater feeling for Cruz nationwide? Nope.
But those f*ckers are the most politically active.
It is going to convention on the GOP side. And the tea party/conservatives really are going to try to throw Cruz up.
Likely to happen as well.
Good news is they get dick stomped come the general.
But it is kinda likely Cruz will wangle the nomination.
Just based on what I see now. I don't think Trump gets to 1237 on first vote.
I do think Cruz gets close on second/third round.
It will be a unity Conservative /Establishment vote to take it at contested in Cruz name.
Trump will stall at 1100-1150 or so..based on my shaky math
aiiiiie bernie :(
Ach. It could be worse.
Now some peeps may get off their ass and be political. Or they gonna sit at home and eat ice cream and say they are "disenfranchised ". That's why people ignore them btw. =]
If you're Bernie. ....vote in the general and move state legislative movements. He gave you a ****ing platform
Ho hum. If ya don't like it . Change it. Eventually if enough agree it'll happen.
The conservative Christian vote gets political play as does the Jewish vote.
So lobby and influence if ya feel different. =]
Tards
Ho hum. Opinion. Mine is that I'm ****ing sick of lazy peeps not understanding how awkward politics are and standing up for themselves.
They'd rather lose and be ignored and whine about being "disenfranchised ".
Well. Stop that ****. Get enfranchised
It's a valid whine when they really are disenfranchised.
Also can't do much about a felony and there are so so many walking around. Not 'nuff space in prison.
Trump back to form in Indiana. Can he win there?
I believe Trump's lead in the NE will seriously crush, more than even CNNMSNBC are projecting. If he isn't hitting 1237 outright, he's so close... at the end of the day, money and racism trumps Jesus, and the GOP will take the shotgun over the rat poison. The shotgun is a lot less painful, gets it over with quick.
This is true. We're a freaking' mess. I'm not sure Europe is aware of our impending collapse, though I'm impressed with their depth of political knowledge. Could be our lack of education creeping in.Quote:
Originally Posted by noobium
We have vast infrastructural neglect that's beginning to pulse more frequently. We've over expanded and are still expanding. The water is going bad everywhere. When I was a teenager, power outages due to storms generally lasted an hour, more or less. Now, in that same house on that same grid, my brother has seen outages lasting 1-5 days since the turn of the century. Sometimes twice a year at length but always longer than before. No longer are police dispatched to direct traffic when lights go down. You weave your way through the culturally inept, which is to say, risking your automotive investment. The sprawl is not accompanied by mass transit. We jam along in the cars we're require to get to get to our jobs.
Since I've lived in my area we've seen what was a thriving sustainable district abandoned 3 fold by urban expansion/sprawl. In their wake we are left with abandoned strip malls, sagging tax bases and the influx of homelessness and crime. Business's act in accordance with their surroundings. The grocery store I use to shop at started posting one cashier at the end of 1 or 2 automated checkouts. The lines were getting to 30 people deep. I never shop there anymore and my revenue goes elsewhere. The strangulation continues...
While a number of well to do types love to dance and make jolly of gangsta rap it's a reality here. We have regular shootings. It's suicide on a countdown if you frequent the bars around here. Things will go wrong and it will be with gunfire. Even 60 Minutes did a segment on the drug plight in Ohio. Break ins are so commonplace I get guys rattling my door every so often. Just last night I came home and the lock was compressed from someone trying to break in.
What some see are the pockets of happy, well educated suburbanites jogging and enjoying their wonderful neighborhoods. Bless them. They have what I call "ghetto traps" that help separate the masses. Some districts have bridges, some have gates or funnelled access points. These essentially offer law enforcement a tool to weed out those who don't belong. But make no mistake; this isn't a trend, it's a symptom of prison culture that permeates almost every metropolitan outer district and much of the suburban. There are growing numbers of those who practice none of the compromises that make civic life civil. I mean you can get in a fight because a guy won't offer you equal room as you pass each other in a shopping mall. A lot. There's a reason we have separation.
I could go on about the housing market vs the supposed uptrend of my area as a hub. The fact is, we were a drug hub before we were a business hub. The collapse is imminent before the upswing even begins. Not because it can't be avoided, because it is in the investors interest to let it happen. They'll move to Indiana next. We The People are not in control in what constitutes a legal hold. The leading studies "say" we are prime for vast expansion and the shopping malls continue to be erected even where people are against them. Shermans March is now in real estate. The thin tax bases can't support their educational requirements or departments of public safety. You don't see libraries either. Parks? No. The kids are homebound in our new world of digital escape. They can shop or stay home. There's no in between. Guess where the culture turns? Seems moving away means you like having dumb, bored children. The established parks and libraries are in districts that've been surrendered by virtue of white flight, or in the process.
I've mentioned before that I was a security guard in the late 80s. My patrol was in some of the worst areas on the eastside. I've seen that downtrodden culture root it's way throughout the entire area. In my brothers neighborhood they try. They have block parties, neighbors are friendly and the core neighbood is getting better. Still, just a couple years ago they had a teenage girl fight. Luckily nothing serious, but some lost weaves and flip flops. One girl threw her gun in my brothers trash can and another girl crashed her car into a tree trying to get away. By no means isolated, just one incident.
I've been voting every year since I was 18, but the arms race never ended. The redistribution of Cold War resources never reached us. We thought it would be the beginning of a better future, but it's just been a spiral downward.
Well I spoke too soon, Virginia is letting ex-felons vote now. Guess they had to accept reality and get a few more votes that are sure to go to the left.
There are grumblings from the left to call an article V convention. The way the country is going, I have no doubt that this novel solution will be foisted on us whether we want it or not. It's not going to be pretty.
@Strat0.
You know as well as I do that these are dark times.
I'm of a younger generation to you. But what my generation considered basic human rights or high school civics these poor kids are going to have to fight for. =[
We both know that the truly bright kids should get free education if poor.
But that if 50% of the kids are paying $30-100k to get a degree for entry level **** jobs it is a scam.This isn't rocket science.
If you are top 10% or so , weighted for background ya should get the goods. An investment.And it's up to you after.
If you ain't, it shouldn't be that ya need to pay 30k+ debt to have an average job.
If ya normal, then ya don't have to take $50-100k debt to get a job that requires the qualies.
I don't even know how many people I know who have useless generic x:x's in social sciences that mean nothing other than them paying debt. = (
Oh, and gob****e mode.
As Trump has won 12/13 of the old colonies GOP vote is he the spiritual us president.. ;)
If they're truly bright, wouldn't it be a more efficient use of resources to let them learn on their own and test out of core requirements? If something like that existed, I probably wouldn't be pissing my life away half-drunk and spewing advice on Strategy Talk due to being stuck in a horrible school system.
Then again the whole point of the system is to make sure everyone knows their place, and the 10% or whatever designated as bright kids are given all these special privileges, while the rest of us dumb****s are told we have no future and better step aside. It's getting worse for the current crop, and it was already intolerable when I was a kid.
I don't think Bernie's proposal for tuition-free public colleges works, because it doesn't hold the universities accountable for anything and the program amounts to a blank check to the educational establishment, propping up a broken system and passing the cost on to the unwashed masses - with a predictable result that the dumb****s like me are going to be the go-to scapegoat, something I have known all my life.
There isn't an easy solution though...
Well, there is the question, why employers require $30k of debt for a piece of paper to do a job that doesn't require anywhere near that much vetting, but the answer to that question leads to the conclusion that this problem is deliberate and irreversible in the present climate.
Told ya Trump would crush. Cruz and K-Sick are so good at shooting themselves in the foot. The RNC has surrendered to the Trumpmentum - no brokered convention shenanigans after all.
Now if they just straight-up vacate the results of the primary, that will be an entertaining ****show.
Trump is still very much touch and go on reaching 1237. The factor that is unknowable and likely to help him reach it is that the an overwhelming majority of the GOP base believe that the candidate with the majority should be the nominee. This *should* imo suppress the Cruz/Kasich vote. The extent to which it does and if Trump can take Indiana will decide if he makes it or not.
Best estimates have Trump at 1150-1200 + whatever the hell the unbound Pennsylvania delegates vote.
IF Trump takes Indiana AND enough Pennsylvania unbound delegates vote according to district /stated beliefs AND he sweeps CA due to the Cruz/Kasich vote slightly diminishing due to the "the leader is the nominee" he may just about get there on first vote.
Even at 1200 , the grass roots or astro turf Christian conservatives as exemplified by Cruz will try to deny him it to promote their agenda. =] They're pure nut jobs
The unbound PA delegates seem to be mostly Trumpers. I think Indiana will go better for Trump than many expect... polling often under-represents him due to the independent vote and Trump supporters being paranoid of all things political. (I know I slam down the phone every time I get a pollster call, anyway.)
Cruz has really been flailing about the past week or so. Picking probably the stupidest fail ever for his VP, before he's even a nominee. Managed to bungle an alliance with K-Sick. He has just assured that Trump takes 50%+ in CA. It's like watching some noob ghetto do a common ghetto mistake. Good thing I'm not in the kingdom.
An overwhelming majority of GOP base do not want a president Hillary. This is why we have delegates to conventions. The delegates can choose a candidate that will win a majority in the general election. This is their job/purpose.Quote:
Originally Posted by makeo
It is only a majority if trump gets 1237. The cruz/kasich vote will only happen if trump fails to get a majority.
Democrats have the same/similar setup. Delegates can pick Sanders because Sanders has better odds of winning the general election.
Numbers trickling in from Indiana. Looks like Trump has taken it.
Hopefully the theocratic element of the GOP go full bat**** and throw up a third party candidate now. =]
Trump is a cnut but they're worse.
How long does your effing election go on for? Seems like forever.
It's funny because legally speaking the parties can do whatever they want with the primaries and forget about the people. It's also a really arcane system with obtuse rules. (srsly the 10% of NY that is Republican has more weight than overwhelmingly Republican Texas?)
Lyin' Ted dropped out, woo.
Technically the election has not started. The parties have a convention in the summer. Often the primaries do not get much attention.Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsMatija
The majority of Americans vote based on name recognition. Voters cannot name any planks on the candidates' platform. That makes advertising very effective. If you have a large pile of cash in your political action committee (pac or super-pac) then you are likely to win. Large corporations who need favors from politicians often donate to all candidates that have a reasonable chance at winning. The primary normally wraps up quickly as soon as big donors believe one of the candidates is ahead. The lead candidate gets all the donations and the underdog can not pay a staff and without a staff can not ask people for more money. No money means no adds and then no one recognizes your name.
This election was different. Sanders is running with no super pac. His entire campaign is volunteers and small donors. There is no good reason for that to fizzle. The same people who believed in his message and then phone banked or canvassed in February will do it again now [note that you can still phone bank for Bernie regardless of your nationality, especially if you speak native English or some Spanish. Keep that in mind this fall too. You will need to enter "your" U.S. zip code on the web page].
On the Republican side Jeb Bush was "supposed to win" but clearly failed early. Trump entered with his own money. Donors are hesitating because they wasted early donations on wrong candidates and will not see any return on their investment. So Trumps own money went a long way. Also Trump is very good at creating a scene. His name is in the news because he comes up with another outrageous comment that pisses off half the world. A lot of name recognition came to Trump for free. It may be sad and a little crazy. In the USA a lot of people vote for the only name that they have heard of. Even if they heard the name because someone was complaining.
Unlike most politics in the United States people usually do know a little about the people running for president in the general election. That means in the fall the voters may actually compare two candidates and think about who they like. Most of the people I talk to fit into two categories: 1) will never vote for Trump or 2) will never vote for Clinton. You can persuade people to switch between Sanders and Clinton. A lot of Republicans believe in the same things as Ted Cruz. In October the entire effort will be convincing supporters to register to vote and to actually go to the polling center and cast a vote. They will not bother trying to persuade anyone. In effect the primary is more important in 2016.