I think it's safe to assume that there is a typo in the guide since penalties for thievery and magic is mentioned twice.
First in:
-50% gains and effectiveness on magic and thievery ops in (slides in over a period of 24 hours)
And then again in:
-50% gains and effectiveness on magic and thievery ops in
The second one should obviously say out instead of in in order to be consistent with the lines about attacks in and out.
When taking that into account the relative tpa difference between the two provinces shouldn't change because of fortified, hence successrate would stay the same.