Probability of Getting a New Scientist Each Tick?

[Andurilas]

A 14 week age is 2352 hours. Let's assume a province spends 352 hours in fort, which is about 5 full forts over the age, to make it an even 2000 scientist eligible ticks.

A province who runs no laboratories will gain about 70 scientists, if the chance is indeed near 3.5%. A province who runs 20% laboratories for fully half the age (which is not realistic) will gain 35 during his non-lab times, and 43.75 during his lab times, for a total of about 78.75. That's 8-9 additional scientists, on average, at the cost of 20% of your land for half of your non-fort time, which, of course, includes war.

[Chanain]

A 14 week age is 2352 hours. Let's assume a province spends 352 hours in fort, which is about 5 full forts over the age, to make it an even 2000 scientist eligible ticks.

A province who runs no laboratories will gain about 70 scientists, if the chance is indeed near 3.5%. A province who runs 20% laboratories for fully half the age (which is not realistic) will gain 35 during his non-lab times, and 43.75 during his lab times, for a total of about 78.75. That's 8-9 additional scientists, on average, at the cost of 20% of your land for half of your non-fort time, which, of course, includes war.

Fair set of assumptions. But things get really interesting when you start looking at the distribution curve, instead of just the average.

I've been working out the range of results. Finally found a good binomial calculator online, which makes the process much easier...

Based on your assumptions, a little over 1% of Utopia will have spawned 90 or more new scientists by the end of the age. The luckiest 5% will have 84 or more. On the flip side, the unluckiest 1% will spawn about 51 or fewer, and the unluckiest 5% will spawn about 57 or fewer. A 25% bonus to production, for someone only getting 57, through the entire age (which, as you noted, isn't realistic), would bump a bottom five percenter up to *maybe* 72 - still well short of the lucky 5% base rate. Remember, when we're talking about a player base of 3700, 5% is about 185 players on either extreme. But the point still stands as you extend the range to quintiles: The bottom quintile is about 62 and down; the second quintile is about 63-67; the middle quintile is about 68-71; the fourth quintile is about 72-76, and the top quintile is about 77+. The bottom quintile, as it turns out, is at a pretty big disadvantage to the top quintile. And that's without taking into consideration that the imbalance will be even MORE dramatic in the earlier parts of the age.

In other words, based on the random distribution model, luck counts for a LOT more than labs.

[Panthira]

While I appreciate this concept, and can see its value, I think it's frustrating a lot of players, and perhaps too much. They feel they have no control. I don't know about where you live, but scientists aren't typically randomly spawned (and possibly commonly abducted). The rest of the science mechanic seems alright, except the UI maybe, but it could really be fun if the user was either given more control, or the formula allowed for more spawning - as someone else pointed out - if you haven't spawned in awhile.

[CannaWhoopazz]

If the average prov ends with 80 scientists then running labs all age would give you 95. Thats fairly significant when they are professors.

So Labs are really not intended to pump science for a week or two, like last age, but instead as a constant part of your build over the course of the age? I'm beginning the only way to really effect how much science you get is to steal it from other provinces with abduct once people get ~30++ scientists.

[Chanain]

So Labs are really not intended to pump science for a week or two, like last age, but instead as a constant part of your build over the course of the age? I'm beginning the only way to really effect how much science you get is to steal it from other provinces with abduct once people get ~30++ scientists.

Yep, and that's the other major hitch with Bishop's logic here: If I run that many labs, all age, then yes, maybe by the end of the age it makes enough of a difference that my science bonuses are better than the bonuses I'd obtain just by dedicating those acres to other buildings instead...

(Maybe not, though. I mean, you get 15 extra professors in ME, that's what, a 15% bonus to military effectiveness? If that's my goal, why the heck would I build labs and wait the whole age for that 15%, instead of putting that land into GS and TGs right at the start of the age?)

...but even if it is better to have the extra scientists, though, that assumes that I get to *keep* those extra scientists. If I can lose my entire 'lab' advantage, that I've spent RL months building, in a handful of attacks, then it might not be a great strategy.

[Bishop]

So Labs are really not intended to pump science for a week or two, like last age, but instead as a constant part of your build over the course of the age? I'm beginning the only way to really effect how much science you get is to steal it from other provinces with abduct once people get ~30++ scientists.

You can't pump with labs, that's the point of the system. Labs are to assist t/ms compete with attackers who can abduct.

[Persain]

You can't pump with labs, that's the point of the system. Labs are to assist t/ms compete with attackers who can abduct.

AT this point though the way spawns look its going to be more effective to have a kd stop waring around year 7 or 8 and do abduct waves for a week then recoup from any massacres. T/m's already need to pump more wpa than attackers and have more expensive training simply requireing that they run labs and univercities all age to keep science means they'll never be "War ready" like the other races. War ready means not running labs/univercities to stop random learns when you need forts/td/towers in your build to be prepared for war....otherwise
"hey lets war."
"sure but your fearies have 0 forts so we'll double tap massacre then before your forts are in."
"well not we cant war and since it was a massacre we cant add 40%+ guilds and keep labs/univer, guess it'll be another 4 days"

edit....if labs were say 1/2 as effective as guilds it might be more viable to keep them in your build. Think 20% guilds 20% labs gives wpa production of 30% guilds, you remove labs when at war since theres more important buildings, but at the current spawn rate 20%+ labs "all age" is a huge investment for what will probably be 6-8 abduct attacks year 8 or 9.

[Panthira]

Yeah, labs spawn (supposedly at a higher rate), but abducts are way faster than labs. I don't understand how tms can compete with that and get wpa and protect sci.

[Verminator]

You can't pump with labs, that's the point of the system. Labs are to assist t/ms compete with attackers who can abduct.

Noble, but they're apples and oranges.

Attackers, at some point, can guarantee gaining a scientist through Abduct or losing a scientist from Abduct.

T/M provinces cannot guarantee gaining a scientist through Laboratories, but they can guarantee losing a scientist from Abduct.

Labs may look like they could help, but they really aren't helping T/M provinces compete at all, because they simply do not produce the same results as Abduct.

[Bishop]

They aren't meant to reproduce abduct, just assist. T/ms have honour to compete directly with new sci

[Verminator]

They aren't meant to reproduce abduct, just assist. T/ms have honour to compete directly with new sci

T/M provinces had honor a few ages ago, but nowadays, any solid Orc or Undead can take it all away anytime they like, much faster and easier than a T/M province can get it back. Not saying this is a bad thing, I've always been a proponent of all provinces attacking in some way or another, but let's not pretend that T/M provinces are as safe as they used to be anymore.

[Goodwitch]

this is a math based strategy game. science you could calculate. scientists you cannot. no big surprise people are unhappy.

[MyNameIsMatija]

I'd suggest that they fuse the effects of labs and universities into one building but then again I like the fact that they suck atm; this way a whoring KD's age isn't over if it gets waved once.

[Bishop]

this is a math based strategy game. science you could calculate. scientists you cannot. no big surprise people are unhappy.

What exactly did you calculate with the old system. Specifically, explain how people didn't just run banks and dump as much as they could into uncapped sci and not calc anything out.

What is more effective, .2 pop,1% alc or 1.5% wpa? When you have 1 scientist to deploy how to you work out where to put them?

[Bishop]

I'd suggest that they fuse the effects of labs and universities into one building but then again I like the fact that they suck atm; this way a whoring KD's age isn't over if it gets waved once.

So the thing that gives you more scientists also stops them from being taken, that's broken.