Who has the smallest number of scientist w/o being hit?

[Verminator]

Never understood the idea behind Labs. If scientist production is a random event, how exactly do you increase the odds of a random event happening? Seems like a trap.

[StratOcastle]

It's like muscle confusion. Works great on the traps.

[CannaWhoopazz]

Never understood the idea behind Labs. If scientist production is a random event, how exactly do you increase the odds of a random event happening? Seems like a trap.

It's based on a percent chance (about 3.5%) so labs increase that percent chance.

[Verminator]

It's based on a percent chance (about 3.5%) so labs increase that percent chance.

Oh no I get that, but it still doesn't make sense. With a percentage number that small, unless you increase the number to at least 50%, what good is the building effect? For that matter, what good is the Revelation spell effect?

Take 3.5% - the base chance. Revelation increases that number by 30%, but it doesn't ADD 30% to the chance, it increases the percentage by 30% of the base. That means Revelation adds a whopping 1.05% to your chances of getting a new scientist each hour. Unless of course, the description is poorly worded or incorrect, but that has yet to be shown, as people are running Revelation nonstop and still not seeing any impact. If the spell ADDED 30% to the number, then we should be seeing a 33.5% chance each hour and a whole ton more scientists emerging, so that is "probably" not the case and the original numbers are accurate. From 3.5% to 4.55% is paltry and pointless.

And Laboratories, do they work the same? Statistics have shown they do not ADD, but simply increase the base number as well. Adding 15% to the base number would surely show more scientists emerging, but increasing the base number by 15% barely puts it over 4% - much more in line with the results of "nothing noticeably different" that many folks are posting.

Unless something is secretly changed with no announcement (common practice I believe) and we suddenly start seeing better results, I doubt either of these enhancements, spell or building, are worth anything at all.

[Tedurur]

Of course they dont add. Do you realize how insanely overpowered it would be if it did? All other things considered equal, on average a province running revelation all the time would, in your example have 11 times as many scientists as a province without revelation by the end of the age. A change from 3.5% chance/tick to 4.55%/chance per tick is not paltry and pointless, on average the province with revelation will have 30% more scientists by the end of the age (slightly less since they start with fixed number as well).

As a side note, if you could have a real life spell that gave you a 10% increase (as opposed to 30% increase from revelation) to the random chance at winning one round of roulette you would make all the casinos go bankrupt...

[Goodwitch]

if the average was the norm. As it stands it's possible, even if not probable, that someone that runs labs, casts revelation always and is sage ends the age with the same 18 scientists they started with or even less. it's kind of like buying a lottery ticket, you always have the chance to win and the more tickets you buy theoretically increase your chance. So do you go out and buy 100 lottery tickets or do you use the money you have on something useful now?

[Tedurur]

if the average was the norm. As it stands it's possible, even if not probable, that someone that runs labs, casts revelation always and is sage ends the age with the same 18 scientists they started with or even less. it's kind of like buying a lottery ticket, you always have the chance to win and the more tickets you buy theoretically increase your chance. So do you go out and buy 100 lottery tickets or do you use the money you have on something useful now?

In a normal distribution the average IS the "norm" ;)

[CannaWhoopazz]

I'm the last one in my kingdom with 18 sci BTW...

[EvilEndures]

I've got 17 and I was never attacked! I win!

[Chanain]

if the average was the norm. As it stands it's possible, even if not probable, that someone that runs labs, casts revelation always and is sage ends the age with the same 18 scientists they started with or even less. it's kind of like buying a lottery ticket, you always have the chance to win and the more tickets you buy theoretically increase your chance. So do you go out and buy 100 lottery tickets or do you use the money you have on something useful now?

Possible, yes, but at that level of improbability, we're into Douglas Adams territory.

On my math, it's something to the effect of 3.76 * 10 ^ -2927 percent.

Roughly on the same scale as the probability of buying a single ticket for each of 300 Powerball draws (i.e. every draw for about 3 years)...and winning the grand prize on every single one of them.

I agree with your point, ultimately, but I think it's more helpful to talk about in terms of more realistic distributions. Based on a 3.5% base and a 14 week age, with no fort and no other modifiers, you'll realistically see a small handful of people spawning fewer than 60 scientists. But, conversely, you'll also see some spawning 110+. And that's just pure luck. Bishop has argued that a 15 scientist advantage (i.e. from running labs all age) would be pretty significant...yet the RNG itself guarantees that, all other things being equal, some people will have a FIFTY scientist edge on others.

It's a flawed system.

[Korp]

I got 2 new scientist within 2 ticks, its okey to hate me.

[Bart of Sparta]

On my math, it's something to the effect of 3.76 * 10 ^ -2927 percent.
.

Damn, you wizzkid. Can you calculate the odds for removing plague with NB? I struggled with that :/

[CannaWhoopazz]

Damn, you wizzkid. Can you calculate the odds for removing plague with NB? I struggled with that :/

7 odds. Or 8 odds

[TommyB]

Damn, you wizzkid. Can you calculate the odds for removing plague with NB? I struggled with that :/

1/470 trillion! :D

[StratOcastle]

Undead and cleric pass the rune savings on to you. Using so little mana they pay for themselves.