Probability of Getting a New Scientist Each Tick?

[MyNameIsMatija]

A 3000 sample actually isn't TOO bad.

I had been working on an assumption that the base was 3.5% or maybe 3%, but if Persain's numbers are right, those figures look pretty unlikely. At 3.5%, getting 73 or fewer spawns over that period would have a probability of about 0.15%. That's sufficiently remote that, if we believe Persain's figures, we can probably rule out 3.5% as a base.

3% is harder to rule out, though. At that base, there'd be more like a 6.6% chance of achieving Persain's results or fewer - significant enough that we really can't discount the possibility that Persain's experience is just 'unlucky'.

3.5%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73
3%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73
2.5%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73

My apologies Persain, this is what happens when you just talk without running the math, still anything is possible.