Probability of Getting a New Scientist Each Tick?

[Chanain]

Actually, Azure, with 9 scientists among 19 people in 24 ticks, you're running below average even if the number is only 2.5%. For a given group of 19 people over that time, there's about a 29.5% chance of getting 9 or less. If it's up at 3%, the probability drops to 12%.

Conversely, 8 scientists gained from Feb 1-9 are on the high end, either way. (The fact that some gained 2, 3, or more doesn't change much, and in fact is quite predictable on a random distribution curve.)

But as to the impact on Persain's assumptions...you're right, the prospect that some of those 'abducted' scientists would have been spawned needs to be borne in mind. The fix was basically 25 ticks in, right? That's likely to have been a few scientists, but more than 10 would be very unlikely, even if it's a 3% spawn rate. (Specifically, about a 13.5% chance of that.) Almost certainly not 20.

[Azureflames]

Actually, Azure, with 9 scientists among 19 people in 24 ticks, you're running below average even if the number is only 2.5%. For a given group of 19 people over that time, there's about a 29.5% chance of getting 9 or less. If it's up at 3%, the probability drops to 12%.

Conversely, 8 scientists gained from Feb 1-9 are on the high end, either way. (The fact that some gained 2, 3, or more doesn't change much, and in fact is quite predictable on a random distribution curve.)

But as to the impact on Persain's assumptions...you're right, the prospect that some of those 'abducted' scientists would have been spawned needs to be borne in mind. The fix was basically 25 ticks in, right? That's likely to have been a few scientists, but more than 10 would be very unlikely, even if it's a 3% spawn rate. (Specifically, about a 13.5% chance of that.) Almost certainly not 20.

For the specific time period we are discussing of slightly longer than 1 day, does he have enough data points that it doesn't matter that some gained 2 or 3, when he is only considering data from half of his kingdom?

I used a 33h window, not 25 when coming up with the 10-20 range. I remember the fix to abduct happened quickly after oop, but the adjustment to 23 happened later. I just don't remember how much later. I am aware that we were on the low end initially, so in my example I placed his on the high end. I also used a more extreme example of assuming he is excluding his highest scientist generators, which is in contrast to his assumption that they generated 0.

[FlamingKnights]

Making love to the RNG goddesses definitely helps at increasing probability of a scientist each tick.

I may be sitting on 34 of them

[drkzeraga]

Making love to the RNG goddesses definitely helps at increasing probability of a scientist each tick.

I may be sitting on 34 of them

And here I am sitting on 22
Fk the 1% man
#OccupyScienceStreet #EqualScienceForAll

[Persain]

3.5%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73
3%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73
2.5%:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...5D+x%3D0+to+73

My apologies Persain, this is what happens when you just talk without running the math, still anything is possible.

err i said it seemed unlikely but didnt have the math infront of me. The quote you copied wasnt even my math, it was someone elses.

Either way your numbers seem to confrim that 2.5% spawn rate is the only real option unless my kd is what in the bottom 5% of the data?
3.5%=>0.05%
3%=>3.6%
2.5%=>44%

If your replace my kds 73 with

Hm, well I have... 83 scientists

3.5%=>0.14%
3%=>24.6%
2.5%=>84%

those 2 kds combined would easily rule out 3.5%, and make 3% seem very unlikely, with 2.5% seeming very reasonable.

Also thing is

Well, it might only be 3-4 for 10 people. But it could be more.

except i went and physically asked every person who was reset down to 23 to look to see if they got scientists and they said no. Maybe a couple people just looked quickly and missed it maybe as i said i purposely said 50 instead of going to 55+ when we had 13 people do learns to get above 23 becuase i wanted a conservative estimate.

[Bart of Sparta]

Let's forget about math. Math only frustrates me when it comes to science nowadays. Let's just agree that "every once in a while" you get a scientist.

[MyNameIsMatija]

err i said it seemed unlikely but didnt have the math infront of me. The quote you copied wasnt even my math, it was someone elses.

My post was in relation to the post and afterwards I address you.

[StratOcastle]

Let's forget about math. Math only frustrates me when it comes to science nowadays. Let's just agree that "every once in a while" you get a scientist.

I just check to see if I get a new one in food.

[Persain]

My post was in relation to the post and afterwards I address you.

aah i read it wrong....sry :D

Anyway

<> Your forces arrive at . A tough battle took place, but we have managed a victory! Your army abducted one scientist.

Seems base gains are about 3.75%....+hours must not effect gains as we tried earlier in the age.

[boilerzak]

April 3 of YR1 A new scientist, Novice Bishop (Housing), has emerged and has joined our academic ranks.

thank you

[greendragon2000]

May 3 of YR0 A new scientist, Professor Ran'gad (Military), has emerged and has joined our academic ranks.

It is now June 2 of YR1 and I have not received a single scientist....this is getting silly...fix your dicer!

[Goodwitch]

May 3 of YR0 A new scientist, Professor Ran'gad (Military), has emerged and has joined our academic ranks.

It is now June 2 of YR1 and I have not received a single scientist....this is getting silly...fix your dicer!

if you make up stuff at least do it right...you got a professor?

[greendragon2000]

if you make up stuff at least do it right...you got a professor?

No need to be nasty about miswording. When I typed this I was on my phone.

Intended was it is now June of Yr one and I have not received any further scientists. FIX THE DICER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Rusha]

Good eye goodwitch

[Andurilas]

My kingdom wide data project is showing no more than a 2.9% chance per tick, likely around 2.5%, or about 40 ticks on average to get a scientist.