It should be obvious from the CE I posted that you are up in your summary. Simians does have 1-2k acres of LL done which I haven't mentioned. Sanc is about 92k acres with our incoming, simians probably around 89k.
Acres are not a measure of who is winning, however. The easiest effective indicator is networth. Simians was 850k nw more at war start - about 500k nw more if you consider our cow's incoming training. For the last 36 hours that number has hovered around 200-300k nw. By this measure Sanc got a slight edge at the start which has since held fairly even. If you want us to withdraw, get that number up to 1-1.5M. (This is the number that made it obvious to me that rage was winning when bio withdrew, being so skewed in rage's favor.)
Another interesting indicator is peasantry. Simians has 450-500k peasants currently. How much does sanc have?
Obviously both of these metrics are very econ-centric. Networth is a weighted sum of all current resources, though the weights are not guaranteed to be accurate. Peasantry is an indicator of future econ. Winning a long war is entirely about economy, and of course the way to get better economy is to get more acres and be able to pump on them. If you have unbreakables that grow unfettered that should be reflected in the networth. If your big provinces are just farms waiting to be chained when the other side thinks they are big enough, that too should be reflected in the networth. Of course most big provinces lie somewhere in between these two extremes.
Looking at these two kingdoms I cannot tell who is going to win. It's not the best-fought war of the age but it may be the closest.